Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema was declared the winner of the country’s 13 August presidential ballot, securing a second five-year term and delivering a clear victory that investors say should preserve the policy continuity underpinning Zambia’s economic recovery.
Votes, turnout and the mandate
The electoral commission announced that Hichilema received 2.97 million votes, or 60.5% of the tally, while his main challenger, Brian Mundubile, obtained 1.86 million votes, or 38%. Voter turnout was reported at 57.2%, down from more than 70% five years earlier.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Hakainde Hichilema | 2,970,000 | 60.5% |
| Brian Mundubile | 1,860,000 | 38% |
What the win means for investors and the economy
Hichilema, 64, leads the United Party for National Development and campaigned on a record of stabilising Zambia’s finances following a prolonged debt-restructuring process. The president has framed his first term as having done much of the "heavy lifting" to restore macroeconomic stability, and his re‑election is widely interpreted as a vote for continuity.
“Investors will be happy with the continuity of another HH term,” said Connor Vasey, frontier markets director at Eurasia Group, according to Bloomberg reporting.
Economically, the result matters beyond politics because Zambia is Africa’s second-largest copper producer. Continued policy stability could support foreign investment into mining, maintain confidence among international creditors and improve prospects for growth that trickle down to jobs and household incomes.
- IMF engagement: Hichilema aims to secure a new programme with the International Monetary Fund by year‑end — a key step for sustaining macroeconomic credibility.
- Investor sentiment: Analysts cited by Bloomberg expect the election outcome to be welcomed by investors seeking predictable policy for commodity and fiscal management.
- Domestic pressures: The opposition campaign highlighted persistent cost-of-living pressures and incomes that lag rising prices, signalling that economic inclusion remains a political risk.
Questions over the electoral environment
The result was larger than Hichilema’s 2021 margin, when he won about 59% of the vote, but the European Union Election Observation Mission issued a preliminary assessment raising concerns. The EU report said the ballot occurred against a backdrop of "a constrained democratic space," citing restrictions on campaigning and advantages of incumbency that blurred the line between state resources and political activity.
“The ballot took place against a backdrop of ‘a constrained democratic space,’” the EU observation mission said in its preliminary report, according to Bloomberg.
Brian Mundubile, 55, a lawyer and accountant, argued the process was neither free nor fair, and his campaign tapped into dissatisfaction among Zambia’s majority-poor population over rising living costs and stagnating incomes. His rallies drew large crowds, underlining that economic grievances remain politically potent despite the defeat.
Outlook for southern Africa
For southern Africa, a second Hichilema term signals continuity on economic policy in a country crucial to the global copper supply chain. That matters for downstream manufacturers and for regional governments seeking stable export markets and investment partners. The immediate watchlist for markets will include the government’s approach to mining policy, the speed and terms of any renewed IMF arrangement, and measures to ease household cost pressures.
While the declared result should reassure creditors and some investors, the drop in turnout and the EU’s concerns underline that political legitimacy and inclusive growth remain central to long-term stability. Observers will now be monitoring whether the new mandate translates into faster improvements in living standards, or whether persistent economic strains fuel further political contestation.
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