Residents and businesses across Saskatchewan can expect higher insurance bills and tighter coverage unless governments and property owners act on climate adaptation, an expert on insurance and extreme weather told media in a recent interview.
Prairies becoming a hotspot for costly weather events
Jason Thistlethwaite, a scholar with expertise in insurance policy, said the Prairies — including Saskatchewan and Manitoba — have seen a notable spike in catastrophic weather events since 2021. He said insurers are already feeling the impact.
“There have been 30 catastrophic weather events. That’s adding up to about $2.5 billion in insured losses – that’s almost $1,000 per person over five years, and 140 per cent higher than in the previous five years.”
Those losses, he said, must be recouped by the insurance industry and ultimately fall to policyholders in the form of rising premiums or narrower coverage. Thistlethwaite told CKOM the pattern is already visible in the marketplace.
Premiums, exclusions and the practical effects
Thistlethwaite explained that property insurance pricing in Canada often relies on historical claims within defined geographic areas, sometimes as granular as postal codes. Insurers average claims over long periods — commonly using a century of data — and set premiums based on that historical risk.
“The issue,” he said, “is insurance has historically worked more or less by driving down the road by looking at the rear-view mirror.” As past events become a poorer guide to future climate risk, that approach forces insurers to raise prices or impose exclusions.
Examples of practical changes homeowners may face include:
- Higher renewal premiums year over year, outpacing inflation;
- More frequent coverage exclusions for properties in high-risk zones (for example, basements in flood-prone areas);
- Restrictions or special terms for wildfire-prone properties.
Numbers that matter
Thistlethwaite pointed to several striking figures to underscore the shift in risk:
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Catastrophic events since 2021 | 30 |
| Insured losses | $2.5 billion |
| Per-person cost over five years | ~$1,000 |
| Increase vs previous five years | 140% |
| Property insurance cost rise over ~10 years | ~100% |
He added that Canadian property insurance costs have climbed to levels among the highest in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
What adaptation could look like
Thistlethwaite argued the solution is not to withdraw coverage entirely but to invest in adaptation to reduce risk. That can include municipal flood mitigation, stronger building codes, wildfire mitigation programs and targeted infrastructure upgrades. When risk is reduced through adaptation, insurers can price coverage more sustainably and communities face fewer uninsured losses.
He suggested that without meaningful adaptation investments, households can expect two things: steadily rising premiums and an expansion of policy exclusions for properties in the highest-risk areas.
Local stakes for Saskatchewan communities
For Saskatchewan towns and cities — many built around rivers, low-lying basins or in regions susceptible to wildfire — the insurance market signal carries immediate implications for municipal budgets and individual homeowners. Increased premiums will affect affordability, while exclusions could leave some homeowners unable to obtain coverage for crucial perils.
Municipal leaders and property owners who want to blunt those costs should view adaptation spending as an investment that can stabilise long-term insurance access and affordability. Thistlethwaite’s remarks underline that adaptation and land-use planning will play an increasing role in determining whether people continue to be able to insure their homes at reasonable rates.
The takeaway for residents: watch policy changes at renewal time, inquire about exclusions and consider local mitigation options that might reduce both risk and the cost of coverage.
As the climate continues to shift, the insurance industry’s recalculation of risk means decisions made now at municipal and individual levels will shape the province’s financial resilience to future extreme events.
