Reform UK has acknowledged that it is losing support to Labour after a year of political and organisational difficulties, with senior MP Danny Kruger conceding that the opposition party has benefited from a more credible leader.
Kruger, who joined Nigel Farage’s party from the Conservatives just over a year ago, said Reform’s support had fallen by several points in recent polling. He attributed part of the change to Labour replacing what he described as a deeply unpopular leader with Andy Burnham, whose arrival had made the party more competitive.
The admission comes as Reform attempts to present itself as a government-in-waiting. Kruger has been given responsibility for preparing the party for government, and nevertheless insisted that it remained on a path towards winning power. His comments show the difficulty of maintaining momentum for a newer political force while established parties adjust their strategies.
“Labour have also taken a few points back in the polls from us, as it were, so we have come down a bit. We have also had a very difficult year.”
Polling shifts the political balance
Recent polling suggests that Reform’s earlier gains are no longer moving in one direction. A survey by More in Common placed the Conservatives on 25%, their highest share in 18 months and the first time they had exceeded the level recorded at the time of their record election defeat.
A separate poll conducted by former Conservative deputy chair Lord Ashcroft put Labour on 31%, the Conservatives on 26% and Reform UK on 18%. The figures underline the three-way contest developing on the right and centre of British politics, while also indicating that Labour has recovered some of the ground it had lost.
| Party | Share in Ashcroft poll |
|---|---|
| Labour | 31% |
| Conservatives | 26% |
| Reform UK | 18% |
The political consequences are being felt inside all three parties. Burnham has instructed Labour to “rearm” for the next election, reflecting concern that the Conservatives could recover under Kemi Badenoch. For Labour, the benefit of a stronger poll position is greater room to shape the contest around its own programme rather than simply defending its record. For the Conservatives, the figures offer evidence that the party may still rebuild its support. Reform, meanwhile, faces the risk that tactical or returning voters could move back to the larger parties.
Questions over leadership and discipline
Reform’s electoral challenge has been accompanied by scrutiny of its finances and internal management. The party is awaiting a report from the standards commissioner concerning Farage’s failure to declare a £5 million gift from cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harborne.
The gift became a political issue after it was reported that Farage had received it before announcing that he would stand in the 2024 British general election. The matter has continued to cast a shadow over the party as it tries to establish itself as a professional national organisation rather than a protest movement centred primarily on its leader.
Reform has also faced a series of undercover media investigations. Those investigations contributed to the departures of two senior advisers to Farage, while some councillors have also left. The party’s general secretary departed last week amid continuing questions about vetting procedures and its broader efforts to professionalise.
For Reform, the immediate task is therefore twofold: to turn public frustration with the established parties into durable electoral support, and to convince voters that it can manage the demands of government. The polling indicates that its appeal remains significant, but Kruger’s remarks also acknowledge that political momentum can be lost when opponents change leaders and internal controversies take centre stage.
- Labour has regained support after a change in leadership.
- The Conservatives have shown signs of recovery in recent polling.
- Reform UK is facing scrutiny over its finances, vetting and internal discipline.
