Republican primary voters turned down a string of President Donald Trump’s endorsements on Tuesday, dealing what analysts say is a bruising night for the former president’s influence inside his party. Nearly 300,000 people voted in Republican primaries in Wyoming and two Florida congressional districts, but only 28% supported the candidates Trump had backed, according to a CNN analysis using Ballotpedia’s endorsement log.
Numbers that tell a story
The losses extend a pattern through this primary season. Republican voters have now rejected 10 Trump‑endorsed candidates for statewide office or Congress — a total the analysis says equals the number who lost in the 2018, 2020 and 2024 primary cycles combined. The figure is also closing in on the record of 12 losses seen in 2022.
- Trump‑backed candidates lost on Tuesday in the Wyoming governor’s race (Megan Degenfelder) and in two Florida US House contests (Rep. Cory Mills and Catalina Lauf).
- Earlier August defeats included losses for Minnesota gubernatorial hopeful Mike Lindell, Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles and Michigan congressional candidate Amir Hassan.
- So far this season five Trump‑endorsed candidates for governor have been defeated.
In percentage terms, Trump‑backed contenders have now lost in 42% of the gubernatorial primaries where he did not back an incumbent (5 of 12), the analysis reports. The CNN tally also notes that six of the 10 losses this year came in August alone.
What the data suggests
The emerging pattern does not imply Trump has been reduced to irrelevance in the GOP. But it does indicate his recommendations are no longer reliably decisive in contested primaries, particularly where local dynamics or establishment forces run counter to his picks.
That was evident in the contrast between earlier cycles. In 2022, many of Trump’s defeats were concentrated in a single state where party figures resisted his influence; this year the setbacks are more dispersed. The immediate consequence is a more contested Republican primary landscape, where endorsements from the former president can help but no longer guarantee success.
Who benefits, who pays
Candidates and factions that distance themselves from Trump can claim political momentum from these results, arguing they can win primaries without his imprimatur. Conversely, Trump’s allies — and the campaign infrastructure that seeks to translate his celebrity into down‑ballot victories — face a tougher calculus about where to invest time and resources.
For voters and the party at large, the pattern raises strategic questions ahead of general elections. If Trump’s sway is partial, Republican nominees may emerge with a broader range of positions and internal debates may be prolonged. That could help Democrats in general elections if intra‑party divisions persist, or it could produce nominees who better reflect local electorates and thus remain competitive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Voters in the three contests on Tuesday | ~300,000 |
| Share who voted for Trump‑endorsed candidates | 28% |
| Trump‑endorsed candidates rejected this primary season | 10 |
| Trump‑backed gubernatorial losses this season | 5 |
How Republican activists and donors respond to these defeats will shape the next phase of intra‑party horse‑trading. Endorsements still carry symbolic weight — they can rally a national donor network and attract media attention — but primary voters appear increasingly willing to test alternatives.
The longer‑term question for the party is whether this is a fleeting correction or the beginning of a sustained recalibration of influence. For now, the data compiled by CNN and Ballotpedia indicates a measurable loosening of the former president’s control over Republican primary outcomes.
