Regina — A fresh analysis of Saskatchewan’s energy plans finds the provincial government’s decision to refurbish coal-fired power plants and use them as a bridge to small modular reactors could cost taxpayers as much as $46.4 billion over the next 20 years.
The study — prepared by Brett Dolter, an associate professor in the University of Regina’s department of economics — re-examines the numbers behind the government’s reversal in early 2025 of a plan to retire coal plants in favour of a mix of natural gas and renewables. Dolter used material from leaked SaskPower documents, submissions to the province’s rate review panel and other publicly available information, along with a number of transparent assumptions, because the provincial government has not released its own internal cost analysis.
Costs higher than leaked estimates
Dolter’s estimate is considerably larger than a figure that appeared in previously leaked internal SaskPower documents. The leaked material, released by the Saskatchewan NDP, put the cost of the policy at about $26 billion over a 25-year period.
The new analysis compares scenarios over a 20-year horizon and finds the coal-refurbishment path could reach $46.4 billion. The study also calculates that if carbon pricing on heavy emitters is not applied, the cost of doubling down on coal falls to around $30.2 billion over 20 years.
| Scenario | Estimated cost | Time frame |
|---|---|---|
| Coal refurbishment (Dolter study) | $46.4 billion | 20 years |
| Leaked SaskPower figure | $26 billion | 25 years |
| Coal option without carbon pricing | $30.2 billion | 20 years |
Alternatives could be cheaper and cleaner
Dolter’s work finds that retiring the coal fleet and replacing it with a combination of natural gas and renewable energy would be both less expensive and less polluting than refurbishing coal as a bridge to nuclear. That was the province’s original plan before the policy reversal.
"If we could pick a scenario that's saving us money, saving emissions and on average saving the individual person $800 plus per year, I see that as a clear advantage to go in that direction,"
That statement, made by Dolter in discussing his findings, highlights the potential household-level savings the alternative mix could deliver, according to his modelling. The analysis factors in emissions costs, which widen the savings gap between the gas-and-renewables scenario and the coal-refurbishment option.
Decision timeline and the SMR question
The provincial government has indicated it is looking toward small modular reactors as part of Saskatchewan’s energy future. A final decision on whether an SMR will be built in the province is not expected until 2029; if approved, construction could begin as early as 2030 with an earliest possible operation date around 2034.
Dolter’s work frames coal refurbishment as a bridging strategy toward SMRs. But his cost comparison raises doubts about whether refurbishing aging coal plants is the most economical or least-polluting interim pathway.
Local and provincial implications
The question matters across the province. Communities that have long depended on coal-fired generation for jobs and municipal revenue — including Estevan, which has publicly warned about population and economic risks tied to coal retirement — face complex trade-offs between local economic stability and long-term provincial costs and emissions.
Provincial officials have not publicly released the internal analysis that guided their 2025 reversal, and Dolter’s study relies on leaked documents and public filings because of that lack of transparency. The discrepancy between the leaked and the new estimates is likely to bolster calls for fuller disclosure from government and SaskPower to allow independent scrutiny.
- Dolter’s analysis: coal refurbishment could cost $46.4B over 20 years.
- Leaked SaskPower documents estimated $26B over 25 years.
- Without carbon pricing, coal-only costs fall to $30.2B over 20 years in Dolter’s model.
As Saskatchewan weighs energy options, the numbers and assumptions underlying those choices will be central to debates at the Legislature and in communities dependent on coal. The province’s next steps — including what role, if any, refurbished coal plants will play as a bridge to SMRs — remain to be clarified by government ministers and SaskPower, who have been asked for their costings but have not released them publicly.
Independent analysis such as Dolter’s is likely to be cited by critics of the policy reversal and by those calling for a clearer accounting of long-term provincial liabilities as Saskatchewan moves toward a new energy mix.
