South Africans should prepare now for a hotter, drier summer. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) presentation at the Sernick Emerging Farmer’s Day on 7 August indicated a greater than 95% probability that El Niño conditions will develop, increasing the likelihood of warmer temperatures and reduced rainfall across large parts of the country.
What the outlook shows
SAWS presented model projections for the Niño‑3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly that place the event in the “very strong” category. The ensemble mean from 26 models — 15 dynamical and 11 statistical — suggests an anomaly of about +2.1°C for July to September 2026, rising to around +2.9°C for October to December 2026. SAWS classifies anomalies of +2°C or higher as a “very strong” El Niño.
| Period | Projected Niño‑3.4 anomaly |
|---|---|
| July–September 2026 | +2.1°C |
| October–December 2026 | +2.9°C |
| January–March 2027 | Remain in very strong category (ensemble mean) |
| February–April 2027 | Weakening to strong |
| March–May 2027 | Moderate |
When and where impacts are expected
SAWS emphasised that the immediate rainfall picture is not uniformly dry. The outlook indicates above‑normal rainfall for August–October in parts of the country. However, El Niño‑related dryness is expected to appear from September–November over parts of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu‑Natal and Western Cape. From October–December, below‑normal rainfall is forecast to spread across much of South Africa, including the Free State, Northern Cape, North West, Gauteng and others.
“There is a high likelihood of an El Niño, with over 95% probability,”
The presentation noted a heightened risk of hot and dry conditions during the southern hemisphere summer, which has implications for agriculture, water resources, municipal supply and fire risk.
Practical steps — what people and sectors should do now
Plan and prepare early. The forecast does not mean uniform conditions everywhere, but the elevated probability calls for risk reduction measures across sectors. Key actions include:
- Farmers: Review irrigation schedules, consider drought‑tolerant crops, secure inputs and review livestock feed plans.
- Water managers and municipalities: Update water conservation measures, accelerate demand‑management programmes and communicate restrictions early if needed.
- Fire authorities and residents in fire‑prone areas: Prepare resources, clear firebreaks and maintain vigilance during hot, dry spells.
- Health services: Plan for heat‑related illness prevention and public messaging to protect vulnerable groups (the elderly, children, outdoor workers).
- Consumers: Conserve water and be alert to possible increases in food prices or constrained supply for water‑intensive crops.
Context and likely consequences
A very strong El Niño typically suppresses summer rainfall over southern Africa while boosting temperatures. That combination raises the risk of crop stress, reduced summer yields and pressure on water supplies already strained in some areas. Although seasonal forecasts carry uncertainty, the near‑certainty signalled by SAWS — over 95% — is unusually high and merits precautionary planning.
There may still be localised periods of heavy rain: the forecast shows above‑normal rainfall in some regions in the short term. This means stakeholders must follow updates closely and avoid assuming a single, uniform outcome across the country.
SAWS based its projections on a multi‑model ensemble. Users of the forecast should keep checking for regular updates as models are refreshed, and combine the seasonal outlook with local observations and sectoral risk assessments.
Bottom line: prepare now for higher temperatures and a greater chance of below‑normal summer rainfall. Early action can reduce risk to livelihoods, water supplies and public safety.
