The long-running drive to expand access to higher education in South Africa has delivered markedly higher enrolment but poor completion rates and growing financial pressure on institutions and students, an analysis of recent trends shows.
Massification outpaces capacity
Since 1995 the combined headcount across universities and universities of technology has nearly doubled, from about 575,000 to close on 1.1 million students in 2023. Government documents and cabinet decisions in mid-2026 show that targets to grow the system have been altered: the earlier goal of reaching 1.6 million students by 2030 has been scaled back to a new target of 1.18 million.
But growth in numbers has not been matched by comparable increases in infrastructure or staff. The state subsidy to universities remains low by international comparisons, while the supply of lecture halls and other teaching space has not kept pace with demand. Between 2005 and 2023 just over 5,300 new academic appointments were recorded — a rate that falls well short of the rise in enrolments over the period.
Low completion rates raise questions about value
Completion within the regulation period for three-year undergraduate degrees is poor across the system. On average only 16.5% of students complete a three-year degree within three years. Performance is particularly weak in several STEM fields in 2023:
| Field | Completion within regulation period (2023) |
|---|---|
| Physical sciences | 15% |
| Computer and information sciences | 16% |
| Engineering | 19% |
| Mathematics and statistics | 11% |
These low completion figures mean many students spend longer at university or leave without a qualification, with personal and fiscal costs: increased student debt, delayed entry to the labour market and greater pressure on university budgets and teaching capacity.
Policy focus and unintended consequences
The ruling party in the Government of National Unity has emphasised expanding access and delivering ‘free’ tuition for poor and working-class students. But the emphasis on widening participation has not been matched by equivalent investments to raise teaching quality, increase academic staffing or strengthen the schooling system that supplies university entrants.
Observers point to a dysfunctional schooling pipeline that often leaves learners underprepared for tertiary-level study. When students arrive at university without adequate grounding, throughput suffers and resource demands on institutions increase — for example, the need for foundational courses, extended curricula and additional student support services.
- Enrolment growth has substantially increased demand for places, teaching space and academic staff.
- Throughput remains low: the majority of students do not complete three-year degrees within three years.
- Financial strain is growing for both students and universities as debt rises and subsidy levels lag behind enrolment growth.
These dynamics create a policy dilemma. Expanding access remains an equity priority, yet expanding numbers without parallel improvements in quality and capacity risks wasting public resources and limiting students’ prospects.
Implications for learners and institutions
For learners and their families the human and financial costs are real: more years of study, growing debt and uncertain returns in the labour market. For universities, stretched budgets and staff shortages threaten the quality of teaching and academic support, with consequences for reputation and graduate outcomes.
Any sustainable approach will need to balance the imperative of access with concrete measures to improve school readiness, increase academic capacity, invest in infrastructure and reconsider funding formulas so that the system supports not just entry, but successful completion and employability.
As South Africa adjusts its targets and debates the scope of ‘free’ higher education, policymakers face the task of aligning resources, capacity and quality to ensure the expanded system delivers meaningful qualifications and better outcomes for students, families and the economy.
