Forecasters at a World Weather Federation press briefing said the current El Niño is intensifying and has a very high probability of becoming a major event this autumn and winter. They reported a greater than 90% chance it will reach "very strong" status and a 69% chance it could exceed recorded El Niño events since 1950.
What the forecasters said
The description given at the press conference emphasised both the strength of the sea-surface warming and the statistical odds. Officials cited sea-surface temperature anomalies of more than 2°C in key tropical Pacific regions — a level that, if sustained, would place this episode among the most intense observed in the modern record.
"They say that you’re strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming ‘very strong’ this fall and winter, and a 69% chance to become a historic event exceeding previous El Niños going back to 1950."
That summary underlines two points: the event is likely to be unusually strong, and there is a substantial — though not certain — chance it could be record-breaking compared with the instrumental period beginning in 1950.
What this means and what to expect
El Niño is a naturally recurring ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that alters weather patterns globally. When sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise substantially, the effects commonly include shifts in rainfall, storm tracks and seasonal temperatures across many regions.
Because this prospective El Niño is described as potentially very strong, forecasters and planners should be alert to amplified versions of the typical El Niño impacts. Historically, strong El Niño events have been associated with:
- wetter than average conditions across parts of the southern United States and Peru;
- drier conditions in Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Africa;
- a generally milder winter across northern-central regions of some northern hemisphere countries.
These are broad tendencies rather than certainties. The exact regional impacts depend on the timing, location and persistence of the warming in the Pacific, and on interactions with other climate drivers.
Confidence and next steps
Forecasters emphasised the current confidence in warming trends but were careful to note that probabilities are not guarantees. The reported probabilities — >90% for very strong and 69% for historic — indicate a robust signal in observations and model guidance, but outcomes will still depend on how the event evolves over the autumn and winter.
| Indicator | Reported value |
|---|---|
| Chance of becoming “very strong” | >90% |
| Chance of exceeding events since 1950 | 69% |
| Reported sea-surface anomaly | >2°C |
Agencies responsible for flood, drought and agricultural planning should monitor updates from national meteorological services and international bodies. Seasonal forecasts will be refined as model runs assimilate new observations over the coming weeks.
Practical advice
For the public and sectoral planners the sensible steps are straightforward and proportionate:
- Keep abreast of official seasonal outlooks and local weather warnings from national meteorological services.
- Review contingency plans for flooding and drought where relevant — for example, water-resource managers, farmers and coastal authorities.
- Consider potential impacts on winter energy demand and supply planning in regions where milder or wetter winters could alter typical patterns.
While the forecasts point to a strong likelihood of an impactful El Niño, the precise regional consequences will become clearer as the event develops. Authorities and the public should stay informed through official channels and be prepared to act on updated seasonal guidance.
