OTTAWA — An independent advisory council is urging the federal government to further reduce the number of temporary residents in Canada and to build stronger systems for tracking when people depart the country, saying current information is too incomplete to guide policy.
Panel warns policy is operating ‘in the dark’
Parisa Mahboubi, chair of the C.D. Howe Institute’s immigration targets council, told reporters the lack of robust exit data complicates efforts to manage the population of non‑permanent residents — a group that includes foreign students and temporary workers.
“There is not clear data on the number of visas, how many every year we renew, and that’s another thing that could be challenging in terms of reducing the total population of non‑permanent residents,” Mahboubi said.
The council — whose membership includes former federal immigration minister Jason Kenney and a number of academics — is preparing a submission for the government’s annual immigration levels consultation. Its recommendations come after Ottawa began to curb growth in temporary resident numbers two years ago, citing strains on housing, health-care and other public services.
Numbers show decline in new arrivals, but stock remains large
Federal data cited by the council show the stock of non‑permanent residents remains sizable. As of June 30, there were about 632,000 study permit holders and roughly 1.5 million temporary work permit holders in Canada.
Those totals, however, mask a sharp drop in new arrivals. Between January and June of this year, just 22,410 new foreign students arrived, down from 124,930 in the same period of 2024. New temporary worker arrivals also declined, with 98,130 counted in the first half of this year.
| Category | June 30 (stock) | Jan–Jun new arrivals (2026 vs. 2024) |
|---|---|---|
| Study permit holders | 632,000 | 22,410 (2026) vs 124,930 (2024) |
| Temporary work permit holders | 1.5 million | 98,130 (2026) vs ~1.2 million total stock in June 2024 |
Policy implications and the data gap
The council argues that without reliable information on visa renewals and departures — including how many people remain after permits expire — policymakers are making decisions with substantial uncertainty. Mahboubi warned it is often assumed that individuals without status will leave the country, an assumption the council says lacks firm evidence.
Those concerns are central to Ottawa’s broader immigration debate. In 2025 Prime Minister Mark Carney publicly said immigration was too high when he took office, singling out difficulties in controlling the inflow of international students and temporary workers. His government has since announced measures intended to curb growth in these streams and said it has regained control over intake.
Still, the council’s submission stresses that managing the overall number of non‑permanent residents requires both reducing inflows and being able to measure outflows accurately. The group recommends the federal government enhance administrative data systems and co‑ordinate with provinces and post‑secondary institutions to improve record‑keeping.
- Better exit information — develop methods to track departures and outstanding expiries of permits.
- Clearer renewal data — report annual visa renewals to show retention rates among temporary residents.
- Informed intake limits — use improved data to set immigration levels that reflect housing and service capacities.
The council’s recommendations will feed into the government’s annual consultation on immigration levels, a process that informs targets for permanent residency but increasingly intersects with policies governing temporary stays. Officials have not yet released a formal response to the C.D. Howe group’s submission.
As Ottawa refines its approach, provinces and municipalities, already grappling with housing shortages and strained services in some regions, will be watching for federal steps to align temporary resident numbers with local capacities. The debate is likely to shape Canada’s immigration policy for the coming years as the country balances labour needs with infrastructure and social service pressures.
