Less than two months before South Africa’s local government elections, a recent Ipsos poll has placed the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party on course to secure a majority in eThekwini, setting up a high‑stakes contest for control of KwaZulu‑Natal’s only metropolitan municipality.
DA rejects any partnership with MK
The poll, which gives MK 55% support in the metro, has prompted a firm response from the Democratic Alliance. DA eThekwini mayoral candidate Haniff Hoosen said the party views MK as a serious threat and reiterated that the DA would not consider a coalition with MK under any circumstances.
“We will never partner with MK. That would be an absolute betrayal of our supporters,” Hoosen said.
Hoosen also questioned the poll’s sampling but acknowledged the possibility of an MK victory could not be dismissed. He described the local race as essentially a contest between MK and the DA for the mayoralty.
Other parties respond — GPU partners unite
Senior figures from parties currently in the Government of Provincial Unity (GPU) expressed concern about the poll results. Several insiders said they would work together where possible to prevent MK from taking control of the metro or to keep it below the 50% threshold.
The African National Congress, however, dismissed the Ipsos findings and insisted it would retain an important role in eThekwini politics, despite the poll placing its support in the metro at 10%.
Why eThekwini matters
Control of eThekwini carries substantial fiscal and administrative weight. As KwaZulu‑Natal’s sole metropolitan municipality, it manages a significant budget — reported at approximately R70 billion — and provides critical services to the region’s residents. Election outcomes here are often read as bellwethers for broader political trends.
- Timeline: Local government elections are scheduled for November, with just weeks remaining before campaigning culminates.
- Key players: MK and the DA are portrayed as the principal contenders in the metro, with GPU partners signalling a preference to exclude MK from power.
- Poll caveats: Party leaders — including Hoosen — have questioned the methodology and sampling of the Ipsos poll.
Implications for coalition politics
With the DA ruling out cooperation with MK, coalition mathematics could prove decisive if the poll’s projections shift or if MK falls short of an outright majority. GPU partners have indicated a willingness to negotiate among themselves to keep MK from leading the municipality, while the ANC maintains confidence despite its low polling figure in the survey.
Political analysts and party strategists will now be closely watching voter sentiment in the coming weeks. If MK maintains or grows its lead, parties opposed to it will face pressure to form tactical alliances or campaign more aggressively to change the trajectory in specific wards.
| Party | Poll figure (Ipsos) |
|---|---|
| MK Party | 55% |
| ANC | 10% |
For residents and stakeholders in eThekwini, the outcome will determine who sets priorities for service delivery, capital projects and budget allocations for the next term. Parties that currently cooperate in the GPU appear determined to safeguard their shared governance arrangements unless compelled otherwise by voters.
As campaigning intensifies, expect more scrutiny of polling methodologies and an uptick in negotiations among parties — all against the backdrop of a municipality whose financial scale and symbolic importance make control especially consequential for KwaZulu‑Natal politics.
Local voters will have the final say in November; until then, political parties will continue to position themselves and mobilise supporters in a contest that many now see as pivotal for the province.
