Potato producers in North Dakota’s River Valley are preparing for a smaller crop in 2026-27 as a wet early June and a subsequent period of high heat combined to reduce both acreage and yield potential, growers say.
Wet spring, hot summer curtail output
David Moquist of O. C. Schulz & Sons said the northern part of the River Valley saw significant rainfall in early June that "drowned out some of the crop," while the southern Valley—particularly around Grand Forks—remained dry much of the season.
"Our area in the northern part of the Valley had heavy rains early in June... I think the River Valley generally could be down about 20-25 percent from last year on volume on red potatoes and yellow potatoes."
Moquist estimated the River Valley could be down about 20 to 25 percent in volume for red and yellow potatoes compared with last year. He also said his operation likely lost about 15 percent of its acres because of the early-season flooding.
Timing and quality implications for the fall harvest
Harvest in the River Valley is expected to begin around Sept. 10 for potatoes destined for storage, with those stored potatoes not starting to ship until late October. The regional shipping window typically runs from October through June 1, although some shippers extend into July 1.
Moquist said a much-welcomed rain fell the previous Sunday evening and should improve conditions at harvest, softening soil and reducing clodding that can damage tubers during digging. However, he noted that the late rain arrived too late to aid the earliest varieties.
Acreage shifts reflect changing demand
Statewide acreage changes also played a role this year. Moquist said red potato acreage in North Dakota fell by about 1,700 acres, while yellow potato acreage increased by roughly 300 acres, leaving a net decline of about 1,400 acres.
Those planting decisions follow shifting market demand. Moquist described demand for red potatoes as "on the soft side" over the past year to year-and-a-half, a factor that influenced grower choices about what to plant.
What this means for shippers and consumers
Lower volume and altered sizing because of variable moisture and heat could affect how quickly shippers move potatoes from storage once shipments begin. Early yellow varieties—some grown in the south end of the state and in central Minnesota—have already been shipping in mid-August in previous seasons, and one south-end shipper has historically started harvesting yellows that early.
Potential impacts to watch:
- Supply timing: Stored potatoes not slated to ship until late October may mean tighter supply in early fall if overall volumes are down.
- Size and quality: Hot, dry stretches after flooding can reduce tuber sizing; late rains can mitigate harvest damage but not restore size to earlier varieties.
- Market mix: Shifts from reds to yellows alter the product mix available to retailers and processors.
| Measure | Estimated change |
|---|---|
| Overall River Valley potato volume | Down 20–25% vs. last year |
| Acres lost (Moquist operation) | ~15% |
| North Dakota red potato acreage | Down ~1,700 acres |
| North Dakota yellow potato acreage | Up ~300 acres |
Growers and shippers in the River Valley region will be monitoring the fall harvest closely. For farmers, moisture timing has long been a decisive factor in tuber sizing and quality. For buyers and processors, the mix of varieties and the timing of shipments will govern sourcing decisions into 2027.
Local producers such as O. C. Schulz & Sons said they remain hopeful that improved field conditions at harvest will protect tuber quality even if overall volume is reduced.
As harvest approaches, shippers and retailers will refine their shipping schedules and volume projections; meanwhile growers must balance soil and weather realities with market signals when deciding acreage for the next season.
