A low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal formed early on Friday and is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by October 26, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a special bulletin. The IMD said the system was identified at 5:30 am on October 23 and is expected to move west-northwestwards towards the coasts of north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha as it strengthens.
IMD forecast and timeline
In its bulletin, the IMD set out a stepwise intensification forecast for the system over the next three days. The agency expects the disturbance to develop as follows:
- October 24: Very likely to intensify into a depression over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal.
- October 25: Likely to strengthen into a deep depression.
- Morning of October 26: Expected to become a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal.
The IMD said that after becoming a cyclonic storm, the system is likely to continue moving west-northwestwards and may intensify further as it approaches the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts over the following two days. The bulletin did not confirm whether or where the system would make landfall; the eventual strength and impact will depend on subsequent development.
What the satellite imagery shows
The weather department released satellite imagery showing consolidation of clouds and circulation over the Bay of Bengal, indicating strengthening of the system. The IMD noted that the system formed under the influence of a cyclonic circulation in the upper air over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal.
Implications, watches and precautions
Eastern coastal districts should remain on alert. While the IMD has not issued a landfall alert yet, the forecasted intensification and west-northwest track place the coasts of north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha on watch for heavy to very heavy rainfall, squally winds and rough sea conditions during the period of approach and possible landfall.
Residents and authorities in potentially affected areas are advised to take standard precautions early, including:
- Keep updated with IMD bulletins and local disaster management advisories.
- Avoid venturing into the sea; fishermen should not undertake fishing trips until the system passes and the seas calm.
- Secure loose outdoor objects and avoid standing under trees or near hoardings during heavy winds or thunderstorms.
- Prepare emergency kits with essential medicines, drinking water and torch/chargers; keep mobile phones charged.
State disaster management agencies and district administrations along the east coast will need to monitor the situation closely and be ready to activate evacuation and response plans if the system intensifies as forecast.
Context
October forms part of the post-monsoon season when the Bay of Bengal is climatologically favourable for cyclogenesis. The IMD’s bulletins provide the authoritative forecast and are regularly updated as the system evolves; changes in track or intensity are possible depending on atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the coming 48–72 hours.
| Key bulletin points | Timing |
|---|---|
| Formation of low-pressure area | 5:30 am, October 23 |
| Expected depression | October 24 |
| Expected deep depression | October 25 |
| Expected cyclonic storm | Morning, October 26 (west-central Bay of Bengal) |
The IMD will issue further bulletins with updated intensity and track forecasts. Citizens in the potential impact zone should follow official advisories and avoid unconfirmed social media reports.
