Parts of Minnesota face two separate rounds of potentially severe thunderstorms beginning Monday night, according to the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service. The first wave is expected to move out of eastern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota late Monday, with a second, more uncertain threat arriving Tuesday afternoon and evening.
What to expect Monday night
Forecasters have placed far northwest Minnesota, along with eastern North Dakota, under a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for severe weather Monday night. Models show storms developing in North Dakota and pushing east into Minnesota after sundown.
The Grand Forks National Weather Service office listed the primary hazards as hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging winds up to 70 mph, with a low but nonzero chance for isolated tornadoes.
"Hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds to 70 mph would be the primary threats, though there is still a low chance for tornadoes with severe thunderstorms that develop during the late afternoon and early evening," the Grand Forks office said.
Short-range guidance such as the HRRR model and the RRFS model show the line of storms moving southeast across the region late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Some weakening is expected as the storms progress east overnight, but localized pockets of intense hail and wind remain possible.
Tuesday's threat and uncertainty
Residual showers from the overnight system could linger across central and eastern Minnesota Tuesday morning, but the highest chance for Tuesday rain is forecast across west-central Minnesota. How quickly clouds and leftover showers clear during the day will determine the instability available for a second round of severe storms Tuesday evening.
The Storm Prediction Center currently has a level 1 of 5 (marginal) risk covering parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin for Tuesday. The agency noted that if clouds clear and the atmosphere destabilizes, eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin could see an increased severe threat late Tuesday.
"Storm organization may be somewhat lacking during the afternoon, but as the mid-level jet streak overspreads the warm sector during the evening, a more favorable environment is expected across northwest Wisconsin and vicinity," the Storm Prediction Center said.
Local context and impacts
The timing of the first round — overnight Monday — raises the risk that brief but intense storms could challenge overnight travel and damage property. The Twin Cities could see leftovers from the first system Tuesday morning, while the greater risk Tuesday evening may focus nearer the Minnesota-Wisconsin border depending on daytime clearing.
The Twin Cities International Airport (MSP) has recorded only 0.20 inches of rain so far in August, making any additional heavy downpours meteorologically notable for the month.
- Monday night: Level 2 (slight) risk over eastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota; primary threats hail up to golf ball size, damaging winds up to 70 mph, low tornado chance.
- Tuesday: Level 1 (marginal) risk across Minnesota and western Wisconsin; threat depends on daytime clearing and atmospheric recovery.
- Timing: First round late Monday into early Tuesday; second round possible Tuesday evening.
| Region | SPC Risk Level | Primary Threats |
|---|---|---|
| Far northwest Minnesota (Mon night) | 2 of 5 (Slight) | Hail (to golf ball), damaging winds (to 70 mph), isolated tornado |
| Most of Minnesota (Tue) | 1 of 5 (Marginal) | Isolated severe storms, damaging wind, hail |
Safety and preparedness
Residents in northern and western Minnesota should monitor local forecasts and have a plan to seek shelter if severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings are issued. Because hail and damaging winds are the primary threats, people should secure outdoor items, park vehicles under cover if possible and avoid travel during the height of storms.
Stay tuned to local National Weather Service updates, radio and television bulletins, and verified weather apps for watches and warnings. If you live in an area prone to strong winds or hail, consider moving vehicles to a garage or covered area and protecting vulnerable plants and outdoor equipment.
We will provide updates as the situation evolves and as the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center release new information.
Soren Halvorsen, WE NEWS
