Neck-and-neck race emerges in Montana’s Congressional District 1
HELENA — A new districtwide survey released this week indicates the contest for Montana’s U.S. House seat in Congressional District 1 remains highly competitive, with Republican Aaron Flint and Democrat Sam Forstag separated by less than a percentage point.
The poll, conducted for NonStop Local by the American Pulse Poling Club, shows Flint at 45.9% and Forstag at 45.4%, with Libertarian candidate Sheedy at 5.4% and 3.4% of respondents still undecided. The survey sampled just over 300 registered voters in the district between Sept. 19 and Sept. 24.
Geography and voter leanings shape close margins
Regional patterns appear to be a factor in the tight numbers. Flint leads among voters in the Butte–Bozeman corridor, while Forstag has an edge in the Missoula area. When pollsters pushed undecided respondents for a lean, the majority — 60.7% — remained without a preference; of those who indicated a lean, 35.6% favored Flint and 3.7% favored Forstag.
Poll results also compared support for named candidates with responses to hypothetical generic-party nominees. A generic Republican drew 45.8%, nearly matching Flint’s named showing, while a generic Democrat polled at 36.5%, well below Forstag’s 45.4%. That gap suggests Forstag’s name recognition or campaign messaging may be boosting his figures relative to a baseline party test.
Senate ballot behavior within CD-1
Survey respondents in CD-1 were also asked how they would vote in the U.S. Senate race, and preferences in the district differ from the statewide sample. Within CD-1, the poll recorded the Senate ballot at 41.0% for Kurt Alme, 28.2% for Seth Bodnar and 20.8% for Alani Bankhead. By comparison, statewide numbers in the same survey showed Alme at 45.1%, Bodnar at 26.1% and Bankhead at 18.9%.
Among CD-1 respondents who said they planned to support Flint, most — 85% — indicated they would pair that vote with Kurt Alme on the Senate ballot; 8.2% chose Bodnar and 5.7% were undecided on the Senate contest.
Context and what the numbers mean
Close polls like this one typically underscore the importance of turnout, targeted messaging and the role of undecided voters in the closing weeks of a campaign. With just over a month before the Nov. 3 general election, both campaigns are likely to focus resources on areas where margins are narrow and persuasive outreach to undecideds could swing the result.
Campaign strategists often treat leaner responses as an early warning about where additional persuasion or get-out-the-vote work may be effective. In this poll, the large share of undecideds who would not commit to a lean suggests both campaigns still have room to change minds.
Quick facts from the poll
- Sample size: just over 300 Montanans in CD-1
- Survey dates: Sept. 19–24
- CD-1 results: Flint 45.9%, Forstag 45.4%, Sheedy 5.4%, Undecided 3.4%
| Candidate | CD-1 poll % |
|---|---|
| Aaron Flint (R) | 45.9% |
| Sam Forstag (D) | 45.4% |
| Sheedy (L) | 5.4% |
| Undecided | 3.4% |
Next steps for voters and campaigns
Montana voters in CD-1 can register and cast ballots in person on Election Day, or choose to vote by mail; ballots mailed must be postmarked 30 days before Election Day to be counted. With the race this close, both parties are likely to intensify voter-contact efforts, emphasizing turnout in key precincts.
For campaign watchers, the poll provides an updated snapshot but not a definitive prediction. Polls measure a moment in time; final outcomes depend on who actually turns out on Nov. 3 and how late-deciding voters break.
Travis Wheeler is the state correspondent for WE NEWS covering Montana politics.
