The public widely overestimates how much crime there is and misjudges the ethnic and nationality makeup of those convicted of serious offences, according to a new report from the Policy Institute at King’s College London. The research, based on two YouGov surveys of a combined 3,961 adults, finds erroneous beliefs are common across the population but are particularly concentrated among supporters of Reform UK.
Perceptions diverge sharply from reality
Survey respondents were asked to estimate recent victimisation rates, whether particular crime types have risen or fallen since 2010, and the composition of offenders by ethnicity and nationality. The study’s headline findings show the public’s median estimate for the share of people who experienced crime between 2024 and 2025 is 27%, nearly three times the official figure of 9.7%. Across multiple measures, perception and recorded trends run in opposite directions.
- Mobile phone theft: 83% of the public think it has increased; recorded figures show a fall of around 70%.
- Domestic burglary: A majority believe it has risen, despite a fall of roughly 50% since 2010.
- Vehicle theft: 62% think it has risen; official data indicate a decline of about 50%.
- Shoplifting: The one exception — the public correctly identify an increase; offences are up by around 70%.
- Murder: 37% of respondents believe it has increased, yet it is down by approximately 20%.
Misjudging who commits serious offences
Respondents also overestimated the share of people from ethnic minority backgrounds among those convicted of homicide and the proportion of offenders who are foreign nationals. While actual data show that around 64% of people convicted of homicide are white and 35% are from ethnic minorities, the public’s median guess placed the white share at only 45% and the ethnic-minority share at 55%. Similarly, people believe foreign nationals make up about 25% of offenders — roughly double their true share.
| Measure | Public median estimate | Recorded figure / trend |
|---|---|---|
| People victimised 2024–25 | 27% | 9.7% |
| Mobile phone theft trend | Majority say increased | Fell by ~70% |
| Shoplifting trend | Majority say increased | Increased by ~70% |
| Homicide ethnic composition (white) | Public: 45% | Actual: 64% |
| Foreign-national share of offenders | Public: 25% | Actual: ~12% (approx.) |
Why the gap matters
The authors highlight clear consequences of these misperceptions. People who systematically overestimate crime levels and the involvement of minority or foreign-national offenders are more likely to believe there is a "two-tier justice" system, to be sceptical about government competence on crime, and to support tougher, more punitive criminal justice policies. The study is part of the Policy Institute’s "Mistaken Britain" series examining gaps between public belief and evidence.
While the research does not attribute causation, it notes political identity is correlated with error: supporters of Reform UK were the most likely group to hold incorrect beliefs on several measures. The wider public, however, showed inaccuracies on nearly every question tested, underscoring a broad information deficit rather than an issue confined to one political grouping.
Policymakers and criminal justice agencies face a challenge if public sentiment is shaped by misconceptions: decisions on sentencing, policing priorities and resource allocation are influenced by perceptions as much as by recorded trends. Accurate public understanding is also important for community confidence and the legitimacy of institutions charged with preventing and responding to crime.
The report suggests that better communication of official statistics and clearer public engagement about long-term trends could reduce misperceptions. It also indicates further research is needed into the drivers of these beliefs, including media coverage, personal networks and political messaging, and how they interact with policy preferences.
