A new model-based poll suggests the Labour Party would be the largest party if a general election were held now, but it would not command an overall parliamentary majority, with Reform UK climbing into second place, according to research published on Thursday.
The analysis, produced using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) for Survation and 38 Degrees, is based on polling of more than 8,000 voters and casts new light on the composition of what the researchers call the “progressive majority”. The findings underline the fragility of Labour’s position if it cannot hold together several distinct groups of centre-left and centre-ground voters.
What the poll shows
Researchers say Labour would remain the largest party in terms of projected seats, but the party would fall well short of an overall majority if the poll were translated into a general election result. The data also shows an increased share for Reform UK, which is placed second in the projection, ahead of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in many scenarios.
Those headline figures mask important variation within the electorate. The research, which combines polling with demographic and geographic modelling, identifies five groups the authors describe collectively as the “progressive majority”. These groups share concerns over issues such as the cost of living and the National Health Service, but differ markedly on immigration, the environment, political trust and the pace of social change.
- Sample size: more than 8,000 voters.
- Method: MRP modelling for Survation and 38 Degrees.
- Headline projection: Labour largest party; no overall majority; Reform rises to second place.
Political implications
The authors argue that to secure a parliamentary majority at the next election, Labour must both retain groups that have remained relatively loyal since 2024 and win back pockets of voters drifting towards the Greens, Reform or political disengagement. That places a premium on a strategy that can reconcile different priorities within a broad electoral coalition.
Senior figures in the Labour operation have been cautious about strategies that rely solely on uniting the progressive bloc. The poll provides a data-driven illustration of why that caution exists: while a unified progressive vote might block the most right‑wing threats to No 10, it could also cost Labour seats it currently holds if other segments of the electorate are not persuaded.
Labour strategists, including Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, have signalled an emphasis on the cost of living. The poll suggests that issue has particular salience for voters who are weighing alternatives such as the Greens or Reform, and will therefore be central to the party’s messaging at this month's conference, according to the research interpretation.
| Feature | Detail |
|---|---|
| Polling method | MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) |
| Sample | More than 8,000 voters |
| Principal finding | Labour largest party but without an overall majority; Reform second |
Where parties go from here
The research points to trade-offs for Labour. A narrow strategy appealing only to progressive voters may not be sufficient to rebuild a parliamentary majority; conversely, a push to recover voters from the right risks alienating elements of the centre-left coalition that Labour currently depends upon.
Analysts say the geography and social composition of the five voter groups will matter as much as their aggregate size. The MRP approach attempts to capture that nuance by modelling how opinion varies across regions and demographic slices, rather than relying on a single national share of the vote.
For Conservative campaigners the projection is an additional warning sign, but it also underlines an opportunity: if Labour cannot hold its diverse coalition together, seats may be vulnerable to both Reform and the Liberal Democrats. For Reform, the poll offers evidence of momentum; for smaller parties such as the Greens, it underlines the potential impact of tactical voting in marginal constituencies.
The research will be closely read ahead of the Labour conference when policy emphases and campaigning priorities are set. The immediate conclusion from the study is clear: without holding together several distinct groups within the centre-left and centre ground, Labour’s path to an overall majority remains uncertain.
