Reform UK risks falling to third place in national opinion polls as its fortunes appear increasingly tied to the standing of its leader, Nigel Farage, polling experts told The Independent.
Pollsters cite leadership link and recent political shifts
Former YouGov president Peter Kellner warned that, unless circumstances change, Reform could be overtaken by both the main parties by the end of the year or into next. He said the party’s slide began before Labour’s new prime minister, Andy Burnham, took office, but that Mr Burnham’s early bounce has already put Labour ahead of Reform in several national surveys.
Tory poll expert Lord Hayward told the same newspaper he was surprised by how rapidly Reform’s support had fallen and said he believed Labour had already moved past Reform. He added that the Conservatives could also overtake Reform if their recovery continues.
“Assuming nothing substantially changes and events take their course in the normal way, I wouldn't be surprised if Reform sometime next year or the end of this year are in third place behind both Labour and the Conservatives.”
The comments underline how closely party performance has tracked Mr Farage’s public standing. Mr Kellner told The Independent that the fortunes of the movement and its leader have risen and fallen in parallel given how personally identified the party is with him.
By-election victory but potential parliamentary trouble
Mr Farage secured a return to the House of Commons with victory in the Clacton by-election on Friday. The result reaffirmed his personal vote in that seat, but pollsters cautioned that a by-election win does not necessarily translate into sustained national momentum.
The former Brexit Party leader has also faced questions over a reported £5 million payment from a donor who is a cryptocurrency entrepreneur. Under Commons rules, MPs must declare gifts over £300 received in the previous 12 months unless the gift could not reasonably be thought to relate to their political activities. Mr Farage has denied any wrongdoing and said the money was a personal gift and did not require registration.
The matter is the subject of a parliamentary inquiry. If the probe concludes against him, it could trigger further political uncertainty for Mr Farage and, by extension, Reform UK.
Implications for the national picture
The warnings from poll experts carry several practical implications for the immediate political landscape:
- Electoral positioning: A demotion to third place would reshape battleground dynamics, particularly in marginal seats where Reform’s presence may have split votes.
- Media narratives: Continued headlines about leadership and financial scrutiny could depress support if voters see Reform as unstable or narrowly personified.
- Party strategy: Reform faces choices about distancing its brand from its leader or consolidating around him—each path has electoral risks.
Lord Hayward emphasised the speed of the change in public sentiment, noting his surprise at how quickly Reform’s position has deteriorated. Both experts underlined that their assessments assumed no major shocks altered public perceptions.
| Party | Recent status (as reported) |
|---|---|
| Labour | Has overtaken Reform in several national polls after Andy Burnham became prime minister |
| Conservatives | Showing signs of recovery; could surpass Reform if trend continues |
| Reform UK | Previously led polls for over a year; now at risk of slipping to third |
The situation presents a test of whether Reform’s earlier polling dominance reflected a sustained political realignment or a temporary surge around a distinctive leader. Polls can be volatile; experts say sustained movement by two parties past Reform would confirm a longer-term shift.
For now, the immediate story is one of winnowing support tied to leadership perceptions and fresh political developments. The outcomes of the parliamentary inquiry into the donation, and the reaction of voters to Downing Street’s early days under Mr Burnham, will both be watched closely for signals about how the national balance of support might settle.
