Depression over Bay strengthens monsoon; fresh system possible around Aug 18-20
Bhubaneswar: Persistent heavy rainfall is likely to continue across large parts of Odisha over the next week as a depression over the Bay of Bengal enhances monsoon activity, said Prof. Surendranath Pashupalak, a weather expert and mythologist. He cited model guidance that also indicates the possible development of another cyclonic circulation around August 18–20, which could cause a fresh spell of widespread rain.
The present system, a low-pressure area that intensified into a depression, is located near the West Bengal coast and moving northwestwards, according to Prof. Pashupalak. While the depression is expected to track across Gangetic West Bengal towards Jharkhand and the northern Odisha–Chhattisgarh border, its principal effect will be to strengthen monsoon conditions over Odisha rather than directly cross the state.
Which areas will be most affected
Forecasters expect the heaviest rainfall between 13 and 15 August over parts of northern, central and western Odisha. Districts specifically highlighted for significant precipitation include Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Angul, Sambalpur, Sundargarh and Jharsuguda. Rainfall intensity may ease somewhat from 16 to 18 August, but abundant atmospheric moisture could keep localised showers and thunderstorms active.
| Period | Likely impact | Districts at higher risk |
|---|---|---|
| 13–15 Aug | Heavy to very heavy rainfall; flash flooding possible in low-lying areas | Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Angul, Sambalpur, Sundargarh, Jharsuguda |
| 16–18 Aug | Reduced intensity overall but localised heavy showers and thunderstorms | Scattered districts across central and coastal Odisha |
| Around 18–20 Aug | Possible fresh low-pressure area or cyclonic circulation — uncertainty in formation and track | Could affect central and coastal Odisha if it forms |
Forecast reasoning and uncertainty
Prof. Pashupalak referred to ensemble outputs from international and national numerical models such as ECMWF-EPS and NCEP-GEFS, together with deterministic forecasts, to underline the chance of renewed cyclonic activity in the east-central and northwestern Bay of Bengal. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is also expected to remain in a phase favourable to enhanced monsoon convection over the region.
However, he warned that model guidance is not unanimous: some deterministic runs from ECMWF and IMD-GFS indicate the possibility of a fresh low-pressure area around August 19–20, while other runs keep the disturbance weak or displaced. "Even if a new system forms to the south of the present depression, it could still drive widespread rain over central and coastal Odisha," Prof. Pashupalak said.
Risks to agriculture, infrastructure and public safety
Heavy and prolonged rains pose acute risks to agriculture, particularly to newly transplanted or directly sown paddy in low-lying and poorly drained fields, the expert cautioned. Standing water may damage seedlings and delay field operations. Flash floods and surface waterlogging may also disrupt roads, railway services and power supply in vulnerable districts.
- Farmers: Monitor field water levels closely; avoid transplanting in waterlogged plots; consult local agriculture extension officers for staging and salvage operations.
- Residents of low-lying areas: Be prepared for rapid water rise; keep essential documents and medicines in waterproof containers and be ready to move to relief shelters if advised.
- Road and rail users: Expect delays and possible diversions; do not attempt to cross flooded stretches.
Preparedness guidance
Local authorities and disaster response agencies are advised to keep early warning systems active and coordinate with district administration to identify and prepare relief shelters. Essential precautions for households and communities include securing rooftops and loose items, ensuring mobile phones are charged, stocking basic medicines and dry food, and keeping a small emergency kit handy.
Health services should be on alert for waterborne diseases and vector-borne illnesses that often follow heavy rains. Power utilities and road departments are urged to pre-position crews and equipment for quick restoration of services and clearance of debris.
What to watch next
Residents and local officials should monitor bulletins from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and authorised district disaster management authorities for updated warnings and advisories. Given the forecast uncertainty, families and farmers are urged to remain vigilant through the second half of the month when another system could develop.
Continued close observation of satellite imagery, model updates and IMD advisories will be necessary to refine timing and intensity forecasts for particular districts.
