DES MOINES — Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand holds a lead over Republican businessman Zach Lahn in the race for Iowa governor, according to new polling conducted by Emerson College and Nexstar Media, while the contest to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst remains a close matchup with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson slightly ahead of Democrat Rep. Josh Turek.
Polling snapshot
The Emerson/Nexstar survey found Sand with 48 percent support to Lahn’s 43 percent in the gubernatorial contest. Two percent of respondents named another candidate, and 7 percent were undecided.
In the U.S. Senate race, Hinson led Turek 48 percent to 45 percent, with 6 percent of respondents undecided.
| Race | Candidate A | Candidate B | Other/Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Rob Sand — 48% | Zach Lahn — 43% | Other 2% / Undecided 7% |
| U.S. Senate | Ashley Hinson — 48% | Josh Turek — 45% | Undecided 6% |
Which voters are moving the needle?
"Driving Democratic competition in the Iowa general election are independent voters, who break for Sand by a 26-point margin, 58% to 32%, and Turek by an 11-point margin, 49% to 38%,"
The Emerson director of polling highlighted the importance of independents for Democratic chances in the state. Those swing voters, the poll notes, favored former President Donald Trump by roughly 17 points in Emerson’s final 2024 poll — underscoring a notable shift among that bloc if the current numbers hold.
Even among some 2024 Trump voters, the poll indicates movement: about one in 10 of those respondents said they would support Sand in the gubernatorial matchup.
Favorability, presidential approval and endorsements
Sand also posted the highest favorability rating among the major candidates in both matchups, at 51 percent. Hinson’s favorability stood at 44 percent, Turek at 42 percent and Lahn at 36 percent.
The poll shows former President Trump with a 43 percent job approval rating among Iowa respondents and a 51 percent disapproval — a net negative position of eight points.
The dynamics of endorsements and primary upsets figure into the narrative. Trump backed Rep. Randy Feenstra before the Republican primary, but Feenstra lost. Lahn, who prevailed in the GOP primary, had backing from Turning Point Action and former Rep. Steve King. On the Democratic side, Turek secured the nomination after defeating state Sen. Zach Wahls, a result that national Democrats viewed as signaling the party’s internal direction for the Senate contest.
Local implications and what to watch
Sand’s lead marks a noteworthy position for the only Democrat currently holding statewide office in Iowa. If maintained, his standing could complicate Republican efforts to hold the governor’s office after the retirement of Gov. Kim Reynolds.
Campaigns on both sides will likely use these figures to refine targeting, messaging and get-out-the-vote plans in the run-up to the general election. Key areas to watch include:
- Shifts among independent voters and how mobilization efforts change that margin.
- The size of the undecided electorate in both races and whether late-deciding voters break for challengers or the party with better ground organization.
- Whether national figures and endorsements alter the dynamics, given Trump’s mixed approval numbers in Iowa and the role his backing played in the Republican primary.
For now, the poll shows a competitive statewide environment where Democrats have an opening in the governor’s contest while Republicans hold a narrow advantage in the Senate race. Campaign strategists, donors and local activists will be watching subsequent polls and turnout indicators closely as both parties prepare for what could be a decisive fall in Iowa politics.
— Meredith Kowalski, State Correspondent
