Senator Darline Graham enters Tuesday’s special Republican primary with a lead but not a mandate, according to the final Trafalgar Group poll released ahead of South Carolina’s contest to replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, on the Nov. 3 ballot.
Poll shows slim advantage in a crowded field
The Trafalgar poll, conducted Aug. 8–10 among 1,027 respondents, found Graham at 26.4% support. Representative Ralph Norman trailed at 19.5%, followed by Representative Russell Fry at 18.4% and former governor Mark Sanford at 18.3%. Businessman Mark Lynch was at 7.5%, with 5.4% undecided. The poll reported a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points.
The numbers suggest Graham is in position to advance to a runoff later in August, but she remains far short of the 50% threshold required to win the nomination outright on the first ballot. The special primary has drawn a wide array of Republican contenders, increasing the likelihood the race will be decided in a runoff.
What the numbers mean for the race
The Trafalgar findings highlight two dynamics shaping the contest. First, Graham’s appointment by Gov. Henry McMaster after Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death on July 11 gave her a visibility boost and the trappings of incumbency. Second, the crowded field — featuring two current U.S. representatives and a former governor — has divided the vote among established statewide and congressional figures.
The campaign accelerated after President Donald Trump endorsed Darline Graham, a development that moved her from a political unknown and perceived caretaker to a serious contender. Despite the endorsement and her appointment, the Trafalgar numbers show the race remains competitive.
Other polls and the bigger picture
Earlier polls showed Graham with a somewhat larger lead. A Quantus Insights survey conducted Aug. 5–6 among 668 Republican primary voters found Graham at 30.4%, Norman at 17.5%, Fry at 16.6% and Sanford at 15.4%, with 11.7% undecided. Those figures pointed to a fragmented electorate and left open the possibility of shifting dynamics as voters made their final decisions.
The Trafalgar poll’s narrower margins relative to some earlier surveys underlines the volatility of a short, high-profile special primary following the unexpected death of a long-serving senator. Lindsey Graham died of an aortic tear just weeks after winning the state’s June Republican primary for a fifth term.
Candidates on the ballot
- Darline Graham — appointed incumbent, endorsed by President Trump
- Ralph Norman — U.S. representative from Rock Hill
- Russell Fry — U.S. representative from Murrells Inlet
- Mark Sanford — former governor
- Mark Lynch — businessman, prior primary candidate
- Plus several other Republican contenders
What to expect on Election Day
Polls in South Carolina opened at 7 a.m. and will close at 7 p.m. Voters already in line at closing time are allowed to cast ballots. Given the field’s breadth and the poll numbers, political observers are watching for whether any candidate can surpass 50% to avoid an August runoff or whether the nomination will be settled in a second round.
| Candidate | Trafalgar Poll |
|---|---|
| Darline Graham | 26.4% |
| Ralph Norman | 19.5% |
| Russell Fry | 18.4% |
| Mark Sanford | 18.3% |
| Mark Lynch | 7.5% |
| Undecided | 5.4% |
The outcome of Tuesday’s primary will determine who is the heavy Republican favorite on the Nov. 3 general election ballot to serve what would have been Lindsey Graham’s next six-year term. With South Carolina’s GOP electorate splintered among well-known officeholders and local figures, the next steps after Tuesday could include a runoff and a rapid pivot to the general election campaign.
As the day unfolds, voters and campaigns will be closely watching both raw returns and regional strength — particularly whether any candidate consolidates support among the state’s different Republican constituencies.
