A majority of Americans say they are materially worse off under President Donald Trump’s second term and would prefer Democratic candidates on a generic midterm ballot, according to a new poll conducted by Focaldata for the Financial Times.
Voters’ finances and the political picture
The survey found that around 53% of registered voters said they were in a worse financial position than on 19 January 2025, the day Joe Biden left office. The sentiment cut across party lines: almost 25% of Republicans also reported being worse off.
On a test of midterm preferences, respondents gave Democrats a 51% share on a generic congressional ballot, compared with 45% for Republicans. That margin represents a potential headwind for the governing party as it seeks to retain control of both chambers in November.
President’s approval and fractures within the GOP
The poll put Mr Trump’s net approval in negative territory, with 55% of respondents saying they disapproved of his job performance. Signs of strain within the president’s own party were evident: the survey reported that one in five Republicans now disapprove of his performance, and Republican support for the president has fallen, with approval among Republicans dropping by eight points since the Financial Times’ previous survey in July.
Those shifts are politically significant. The poll noted that Democrats need to pick up four Senate seats and the same number in the House to secure majorities in both chambers next year, a change that would materially affect the administration’s legislative and oversight prospects.
- 53% of registered voters say they are worse off financially than in January 2025.
- 51% would vote Democratic on a generic midterm ballot; 45% would vote Republican.
- 55% disapprove of President Trump’s job performance; 20% of Republicans now disapprove.
Context and possible consequences
Economic perceptions are a well-established driver of midterm outcomes. The poll’s finding that a majority of voters feel personally worse off presents a conventional electoral difficulty for the incumbent party. The survey authors link those impressions in part to the wider geopolitical environment and rising costs, including fuel prices, which respondents flagged as contributing to their personal finances.
For the Republican Party, the erosion of support within its own ranks matters as much as the overall balance. An eight-point fall in Republican approval for the president between surveys is the kind of movement that can alter primary dynamics and candidate positioning ahead of competitive races.
For Democrats, the results provide an opening but not a guarantee. Generic-ballot leads in polls can translate into gains if they persist and if turnout patterns favour the party that is behind in the White House. The margin indicated by this survey would require effective campaigning and candidate recruitment in key districts and states.
What the poll does not resolve
Poll snapshots reflect sentiment at a moment in time and are sensitive to short-term events. They do not predict exact seat outcomes. The Financial Times’ data illustrate trends that political strategists will study closely in the run-up to November: voter perceptions of personal economic wellbeing, trust on jobs and the economy, and the stability of the president’s base.
| Measure | Result |
|---|---|
| Voters worse off since Jan 19, 2025 | 53% |
| Generic midterm ballot – Democrats | 51% |
| Generic midterm ballot – Republicans | 45% |
| Disapprove of Trump | 55% |
| Republicans who disapprove | 20% |
The poll, released on Sunday, will sharpen the focus on economic messaging from both parties. It also underlines the continuing uncertainty in American politics as midterm campaigning intensifies.
