Technology

Chinese etch breakthrough and CXMT’s surge reshape global 3D DRAM prospects

A published etching breakthrough from NAURA and rapid market share gains by CXMT underscore accelerating momentum in China’s DRAM capabilities, raising questions about supply chains, equipment needs and industry tipping points.

Chinese etch breakthrough and CXMT’s surge reshape global 3D DRAM prospects
©Illustration AI Sanjay Bhatt / we-news.com

Chinese semiconductor equipment maker NAURA Technology Group has disclosed a process advance for next‑generation 3D DRAM manufacture, while memory maker CXMT recorded a remarkable jump in global market share in the second quarter of 2026, data from industry analysts show. Together, the developments mark a notable acceleration in capabilities inside China’s memory ecosystem.

What NAURA published

NAURA has published an academic paper in an IEEE journal describing a new two‑step cyclic etching technique designed to tackle the high‑aspect‑ratio selective etching problems that arise when DRAM moves from planar to stacked three‑dimensional structures. The method is notable because it enables critical fabrication steps without relying on EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography equipment.

Rapid market gains for CXMT

At the same time, market research from Counterpoint shows DRAM revenue surged globally and that CXMT’s share rose sharply. Counterpoint reported that global DRAM revenue increased by 385% year‑on‑year in Q2 2026, with sequential growth of 57%. CXMT’s revenue share reached 10% in the quarter, up 4 percentage points year‑on‑year and up 2 percentage points from the previous quarter, making it the fourth‑largest supplier by revenue.

Supplier Q2 2026 share
Samsung Electronics 38%
SK Hynix 25%
Micron Technology 24%
CXMT 10%

Counterpoint’s breakdown also shows SK Hynix’s share fell by 4 percentage points from the previous quarter, while Micron and CXMT each gained 2 points quarter‑on‑quarter. Analysts cited in the source say much of CXMT’s growth came at SK Hynix’s expense.

Why the technical note matters

The NAURA etch technique is aimed at a specific manufacturing challenge: creating deep, narrow features reliably when chips are stacked vertically. Conventional solutions to some of these problems rely on EUV lithography and other advanced tools that are costly and tightly controlled globally. NAURA’s approach, as described in the paper, targets the selective removal of material in high‑aspect‑ratio structures using a cyclic process that can be implemented without EUV.

That matters for two reasons. First, if manufacturers can achieve critical 3D DRAM process steps without EUV, it reduces dependence on a class of equipment where export controls and supply restrictions have been a geopolitical flashpoint. Second, process innovations of this kind can shorten the time and capital required for new entrants to scale production.

Growth trajectory and the tipping point

CXMT’s rise has been steep. The company held under 1% of the global DRAM market in 2023, reached 4% in Q2 2025, climbed to 8% in Q1 2026 and exceeded the 10% mark in Q2. Research houses such as Counterpoint and UBS had previously forecast CXMT would not hit a 10% shipment share until around 2028, meaning the company achieved that level roughly two years ahead of those projections.

Industry observers commonly refer to a roughly 13–15% share as a “tipping point,” at which economies of scale and wider customer acceptance can accelerate expansion. At its present pace CXMT could approach that range sooner than many anticipated.

Implications for supply chains and policy

The combination of a published domestic equipment breakthrough and a rapidly scaling domestic DRAM vendor will be watched closely by governments, customers and competitors. For buyers and policy makers in the UK and Europe, the developments underscore the need to reassess supply resilience, diversification and the strategic leverage held by equipment suppliers and dominant memory makers.

  • Manufacturing independence: Process steps that avoid EUV could reduce reliance on restricted tools.
  • Competitive dynamics: CXMT’s rapid share gains can reshape pricing and sourcing for memory modules.
  • Policy considerations: Investors and regulators will monitor whether technological advances translate into sustained capacity expansion.

While published research does not guarantee immediate factory adoption, and market share shifts can be cyclical, these twin signals — a process paper from a domestic equipment maker and an unexpectedly fast market climb by a domestic memory supplier — deserve attention from industry watchers and procurement teams reassessing future DRAM supply options.

Sanjay Bhatt
Sanjay AI Technology Editor online

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