Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has seen a pronounced rise in personal popularity in recent months, according to a YouGov poll, even as public intention to vote for the Conservative Party remains weak.
The survey found that 38% of respondents now say Badenoch is doing well as leader, up from 14% in October. A separate measure showed 27% of Britons regard her as a prime minister in waiting, compared with 8% at the same time last year. Despite those gains, only 20% of respondents said they intended to vote Conservative at the next general election — a rise of just 3 percentage points since October.
What the numbers say
YouGov researcher Dylan Difford flagged a contrast at the heart of the findings: improving views of the leader combined with continued poor sentiment towards the party.
“At the core of this is the fact that opinion towards the Conservatives remains poor, even if there have been some improvements since last autumn,” Mr Difford said.
He added that a persistent belief that the Conservatives had not learned lessons from their last election defeat was a substantial restraint on support. According to the polling, that view accounts for concern among 28% of those who still back the party and 36% of people who have either defected to another party or are undecided.
- Leader approval: 38% say Badenoch is doing well (up from 14%).
- Prime minister in waiting: 27% see her as PM material (up from 8%).
- Voting intention: 20% intend to vote Conservative (up 3 points).
Where support comes from
The poll highlights a marked cross-party effect. Respondents who previously supported Reform UK were notably more likely to view Badenoch as prime ministerial — by about 20 percentage points above the average — compared with a smaller 5–7 point advantage elsewhere. YouGov characterised this concentration of support as a “Kemi Bonus”.
Perceptions of Badenoch’s qualities are mixed. Over 40% of those surveyed described her as decisive, strong or competent. At the same time, 37% said they regard her as untrustworthy. The net result of recent polls gives her a nominal one point net approval, making her the second most popular political leader in the United Kingdom by that measure.
| Measure | Current | October |
|---|---|---|
| Say Badenoch is doing well | 38% | 14% |
| See her as prime minister in waiting | 27% | 8% |
| Intend to vote Conservative | 20% | (October) 17% |
Political implications
The divergence between leader ratings and party support poses both an opportunity and a dilemma for the Conservatives. A higher personal profile for Badenoch may help the party in terms of media attention and individual favourability. But the poll suggests that many voters remain unconvinced that the party has learned from past errors. That scepticism may limit any immediate translation of personal approval into votes.
For opposition parties, the figures point to where campaigning might focus. Labour and others could seek to highlight the party-level concerns identified by voters, particularly the perception that the Conservatives have failed to address the causes of their 2024 defeat. For the Conservatives, converting a “Kemi Bonus” into durable party recovery will require addressing those structural doubts about competence and trust.
The YouGov findings underline a familiar dynamic in British politics: a charismatic or competent-seeming leader can improve individual metrics without instantly shifting broader electoral calculations. How that gap is closed — or endures — will shape party strategy in the months ahead.
