The Free State recorded a decline in murders in the April to June 2026 quarter, but the overall crime picture is mixed after a steep rise in attempted murder, according to the latest provincial crime statistics.
Fewer murders, but attempted killings surge
Between April and June 2026 the province recorded 156 murders, down from 186 in the same period a year earlier — a 16.1% decrease. Murders also fell by 10.3% compared with the previous quarter (January to March 2026).
However, attempted murder showed a dramatic increase. The province logged 678 attempted murder cases in the quarter, up from 393 a year earlier — a rise of 72.5%. Police management has acknowledged the spike and said targeted resources and operational interventions will be directed towards serious violent crime.
Robbery and property crime trends
Several robbery-related categories recorded declines in the quarter that forms the first of the 2026/2027 financial year. Notable movements included:
- Robbery with aggravating circumstances: down 9.3%
- Carjacking, robbery at residential premises and robbery at non-residential premises: all recorded decreases (provincial summary)
- Trio crimes (carjacking, house robbery and business robbery combined): fell by 23.3%, from 399 to 306 cases
Property-related crime showed small improvement, slipping by 1.1% from 4,853 to 4,802 incidents.
Police activity and detections intensify
Police action led to more detections this quarter: crimes detected as a result of police activity climbed by 13%, from 3,560 to 4,023 cases. Detection increases were recorded across several offence types:
- Drug-related crimes detected through police action: up 15.6%
- Sexual offences detected through police action: up 23.4%
- Illegal possession of firearms and ammunition: detections rose by 10.3%
District-level activity shows uneven patterns. Thabo Mofutsanyana District accounted for the highest share of crimes detected through police action with 1,782 cases (about 44.3% of the provincial total), while Mangaung recorded 1,345 police-detected cases and also the highest contact crime figure in the province.
Overall numbers and context
Across the quarter the Free State recorded 8,817 contact crimes, an increase of 3.6% compared with the same period last year. Community-reported serious crimes rose by 3.9%, reaching 20,622 cases.
| Offence | April–June 2025 | April–June 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Murders | 186 | 156 | -16.1% |
| Attempted murder | 393 | 678 | +72.5% |
| Trio crimes | 399 | 306 | -23.3% |
| Contact crimes | 8,817 | +3.6% (y/y) |
What this means for communities and policing
The divergence between falling murders and the surge in attempted murders poses operational and community-engagement challenges. A drop in certain robbery categories and in trio crimes suggests some success from targeted interventions, yet the sharp rise in attempted killings indicates persistent pockets of severe violence.
Police management has said the attempted murder increase will receive focused attention, with additional resources and operational interventions prioritised for serious violent crime. The increase in detections from police activity suggests stepped-up enforcement and intelligence-led operations in parts of the province.
For residents, the statistics underline the importance of neighbourhood crime prevention measures and continued engagement with local SAPS stations and ward councillors on policing priorities and visible deployments.
Provincial crime patterns can shift quickly; the next quarterly release will show whether the attempted murder surge persists or if intensified policing reduces the trend. In the meantime, community members and businesses should remain vigilant and report violent and suspicious activity promptly to their local police stations.
