Giorgia Meloni, whose government last month became the longest‑serving in Italy’s republican history, faces an internal challenge from the far right that could imperil her ruling coalition ahead of the 2027 election, analysts say.
Meloni’s personal standing remains notable. Polls put her approval rating at around 41%, one of the highest among west European leaders, and her Brothers of Italy party has retained most of its support, a rare feat in an era often hostile to incumbents. Yet the stability this suggests masks a growing problem on her right flank.
New rival draws support from the League
The principal threat comes from Roberto Vannacci, a former army general who has launched a new far‑right movement, National Future. Vannacci first came to public attention after the 2023 self‑publication of
"Il mondo al contrario (The World Turned Upside Down)"and a subsequent suspension from the armed forces. His book, with its outspoken denunciations of cosmopolitanism, multiculturalism and feminism, attracted intense media attention.
That attention translated into political success. Vannacci was elected to the European Parliament in 2024. He later left the League and this year founded National Future. Polling indicates that the League, led by Matteo Salvini and a junior partner in Meloni’s coalition, has been losing support to Vannacci’s movement — a shift that could weaken the broader centre‑right alliance.
Political calculations once suggested an electoral logic for co‑operation between Meloni and a Vannacci‑inspired current. But analysts caution that Vannacci’s abrasive style and extreme positions complicate any straightforward alliance. His appeal is rooted in law‑and‑order rhetoric and a confrontational public persona; observers note he may exploit unrest to boost his credentials in that area.
Coalition arithmetic and electoral risk
The dynamic is important because Italy’s coalition politics depend on the transferability of votes among allied parties. If the League continues to bleed support to National Future, the coalition that backed Meloni into office risks fragmentation. That could diminish her chances of securing a renewed mandate in 2027 even if her personal approval remains comparatively strong.
For now, much hinges on how Vannacci converts attention into sustainable electoral weight. His trajectory from suspended general and author to MEP and party founder demonstrates an ability to mobilise a certain audience. Whether that translates into broader electoral success at the national level is an open question.
- Meloni — prime minister; government is Italy’s longest‑serving under the republic.
- Approval — approximately 41% in recent polling.
- Vannacci — former general; author of Il mondo al contrario; elected to the European Parliament in 2024; founder of National Future.
The development also carries implications beyond Italy. Meloni has become a reference point on the European right, noted for a relatively moderate foreign policy and a high public profile. A split on her right could reshape alliances across Europe’s conservative spectrum and create new alignments among parties that currently cooperate in government.
Analysts will also watch how other coalition partners react, not least the League. Matteo Salvini’s earlier decision to engage Vannacci when he was still within the League appears to have been an attempt to arrest a dip in the party’s fortunes. That gamble helped elevate Vannacci but now risks contributing to a realignment that may not favour Salvini or Meloni.
At stake is the arithmetic of Italy’s next national contest. The 2027 election will test whether Meloni’s combination of longevity, public approval and coalition management suffices to withstand an insurgent movement harnessing nationalist, law‑and‑order sentiment. For now, the prime minister remains dominant, but the political ground on her right is shifting.
