Austin, Texas — President Donald Trump traveled to Texas this week to boost Republican midterm efforts and to lend support to state Attorney General Ken Paxton in his U.S. Senate bid, a move that underscores the mounting competitiveness of a contest that until recently was considered safely Republican.
From red to battleground
Political observers and GOP operatives say the visit highlights how Texas has shifted toward the center of the midterm map. Last week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report adjusted the Senate contest in Texas toward Democrats, labeling the race a toss-up. That assessment has intensified outside attention and spending on the state’s race.
The change is notable because Texas’ size and multiple media markets already make campaigning here expensive. Now, with the race viewed as competitive, the financial scale has ballooned. Research firm AdImpact revised its earlier projections and estimated that political advertising in Texas could reach $446 million — far above its initial forecast of $124 million.
Fundraising and strategy
Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he planned to spend significant time in Texas in support of Paxton. One Republican source informed reporters that Paxton is expected to attend a Thursday fundraiser with the president; organizers said proceeds from that event will be directed to the Republican National Committee, which is hosting the gathering.
“I’m going to help Ken Paxton. I’m going to spend a lot of time in Texas,”
Donors and activists inside the GOP are candid that one high-profile visit will not be sufficient to secure what they now view as an expensive contest. Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor supporting Paxton, said a competitive Texas requires significant investment: "A competitive Texas is a very expensive date for us," he told The Hill.
After a bruising primary
Part of the concern inside Republican circles stems from the contentious primary season. The intraparty battle between Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn proved costly; the two campaigns together spent approximately $135 million on advertising during the primary. Some Cornyn allies had warned that a Paxton nomination could weaken the party’s general-election standing and force national leaders to shift money and attention to Texas at the expense of other races.
Senate Republicans are already defending several competitive contests nationwide. Party strategists fear that heavy resource flows into Texas could leave other vulnerable seats underfunded at a crucial moment in the cycle.
What the numbers show
Recent projections and past spending underscore the scale of the issue:
- $446 million — AdImpact’s updated forecast for political ad spending in Texas this cycle.
- $124 million — AdImpact’s original projection earlier in the year.
- $135 million — Combined ad spending by Paxton and Cornyn during the Republican primary.
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Updated Texas ad spending projection | $446 million |
| Original projection | $124 million |
| Primary ad spending (Paxton vs. Cornyn) | $135 million |
Local stakes and national calculus
For Texas voters, the influx of national attention means an outsize share of advertising and campaign events in coming weeks. For the national Republican Party, it poses a difficult calculus: whether to commit additional funds and high-profile surrogates to defend a state that has been drifting toward Democrats, or to prioritize resources in other competitive states where the party may have better odds.
Republican officials and donors said they expect more money to be raised and spent in Texas as the cycle progresses. How much will be needed to secure the seat remains an open question — and one that could determine the broader balance of power in the Senate.
As the campaign accelerates, Texans can also expect more visits from national leaders, increased advertising in major media markets, and intensified outreach from both parties. The fundraising event hosted by the RNC this week is the latest sign that the national party sees Texas as a pivotal battleground this midterm season.
Reporting for this article relied on public statements and reporting regarding the Cook Political Report shift, AdImpact projections and recent comments from President Trump and GOP donors.
