With slightly more than six weeks before the Nov. 4 general election, a new Texas Southern University poll paints the U.S. Senate contest in Texas as essentially tied, underlining the competitiveness of a race many had expected to tilt decisively toward Republicans. Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by a single point among likely voters, 47% to 46%, according to the survey released Sept. 22. The poll also found 3% for Libertarian Ted Brown and 4% undecided.
Poll details and context
The TSU poll was conducted Sept. 15-19 and surveyed 1,800 Texans who the pollsters deemed likely to vote in November. The survey has a reported margin of error of ±2.31 percentage points, meaning the one-point gap falls well within statistical uncertainty.
Both major-party candidates showed negative net favorability in the poll. Talarico’s favorability stood at 47% favorable, 50% unfavorable, while Paxton registered 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable. Small shares of likely voters — 3% for Talarico and 2% for Paxton — said they did not know enough about the candidates to form an opinion.
Who supports whom
The poll’s demographic breakdown highlights the stark partisan and demographic divides shaping the contest.
- White voters: Paxton leads, 56% to 37%.
- Latino voters: Talarico leads, 57% to 38%.
- Black voters: Talarico holds a commanding advantage, 87% to 10%.
- Women: Talarico leads, 53% to 42%.
- Men: Paxton leads, 51% to 42%.
Age splits were also pronounced. Paxton led among likely voters 55 and older, 57% to 37%, while Talarico led those aged 35–54, 51% to 42%.
| Group | Talarico | Paxton |
|---|---|---|
| White likely voters | 37% | 56% |
| Latino likely voters | 57% | 38% |
| Black likely voters | 87% | 10% |
Partisan loyalty and undecided voters
Party-line support remains strong. The survey found 99% of Democrats planned to vote for Talarico, with virtually none supporting Paxton and 1% still undecided. Among Republicans, 84% intended to back Paxton, while 7% said they would vote for Talarico, 4% for Brown and 5% remained undecided.
Those undecided voters and cross-party supporters, though a small percentage, are potentially decisive in a race this close. The margin of error allows for either campaign to claim momentum and underscores why both sides continue to invest resources and attention across the state.
What this means for the closing weeks
The TSU poll’s result differs in some respects from other September surveys that showed Talarico with a net-positive favorability, signaling volatility in public perceptions. Negative favorability for both major-party candidates indicates that persuading undecided and independent voters will be critical in the campaign’s final stretch.
With early voting already underway or imminent in many jurisdictions, turnout operations and targeted messaging to specific demographic groups — particularly younger voters and Latinos in suburban areas — could be decisive. The age and racial splits evident in the TSU data suggest each campaign will double down on tailored outreach to shore up support and peel off persuadable voters.
The presence of a Libertarian on the ballot and a small but persistent undecided bloc means election night could hinge on late-deciding voters and partisan turnout patterns. Given the poll’s sample size and margin of error, the contest remains fluid.
As campaigns enter the final month, voters will continue to hear competing arguments about leadership, policy priorities and personal records. The TSU poll offers a snapshot of the race today: a narrowly divided electorate in a state that has seen shifting political dynamics over recent cycles.
Further polling between now and Election Day will be needed to chart whether the gap widens, narrows or flips entirely.
