A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research finds that a substantial share of early-career scientists reconsidered plans to pursue academic research in the spring of 2025, a shift that researchers say coincided with heightened federal scrutiny of government-funded science and international students.
Survey shows marked drop in career optimism
The survey, conducted in March 2025, found that about one-third of respondents who had earlier said they were likely or very likely to seek careers in academia no longer felt that way. The study also reports that nearly one-quarter of those who had planned to remain and work in the United States rescinded that expectation, and that satisfaction with having pursued a Ph.D. fell by 17 percentage points compared with six months earlier.
The paper, published as a working paper by the NBER (DOI: 10.3386/w35330), was produced by a team including Raffaella Sadun of Harvard Business School and collaborators from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Monash University.
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Authors say the timing of the survey was unusual: their research into biomedical lab management coincided with a public campaign by the federal government earlier in 2025 aimed at tightening rules governing science funding and the presence of international students in U.S. institutions. Though many of the administration’s actions have faced legal challenges and been temporarily blocked by courts, the study argues that the campaign itself helped to generate uncertainty among younger researchers.
Implications for U.S. research enterprise
Researchers warn that the shifts documented by the survey could signal broader disruptions for the partnership between the federal government and universities that has long underpinned U.S. leadership in scientific discovery, technological innovation and economic growth. The paper ties declines in career intentions and satisfaction among young scientists to rising doubts about the viability of academic careers and the attractiveness of the U.S. as a place to work.
- Career plans: ~33% of those previously likely to pursue academia changed their minds.
- U.S. retention: nearly 25% fewer expected they would stay and work in the United States.
- Ph.D. satisfaction: a 17 percentage-point decline in those satisfied or neutral about earning a Ph.D.
| Measure | Reported change |
|---|---|
| Intent to pursue academic career | −33% (one-third fewer) |
| Likelihood of staying to work in U.S. | ~−25% |
| Satisfaction with pursuing Ph.D. | −17 percentage points |
The authors caution that these declines emerged during a period of policy uncertainty and public debate over national security, foreign influence, and the governance of federally funded research. They note that even where legal rulings have blocked or delayed policy changes, the notoriety and public discussion surrounding those efforts appear to have contributed to a climate of uncertainty for early-career researchers.
What the findings mean going forward
While the working paper presents survey evidence of changing attitudes, it does not project long-term workforce outcomes. Still, the trends it documents are of immediate concern to university administrators, funders and policymakers: a shrinking pipeline of candidates committed to academic careers could affect research productivity, graduate training programs and the broader innovation ecosystem.
Policy responses and institutional actions that reduce uncertainty about funding, immigration and institutional collaboration may influence whether the reported declines are temporary or persist. The paper underscores the sensitivity of talent pipelines to public policy debates and court challenges, and suggests that maintaining confidence among early-career scientists may be important to sustaining U.S. leadership in science and technology.
— Science desk
