CONCORD — New polling released this week indicates a change in momentum in New Hampshire's hotly contested U.S. Senate race, with Democrat Chris Pappas moving into a measurable lead over Republican John Sununu in surveys closely watched by both parties.
Poll results show a tightening and then a swing
The University of New Hampshire Survey Center's Granite State Poll finds Pappas at 50% support compared with 42% for Sununu, a reversal from earlier this month when Sununu held a narrow advantage. A separate New York Times/Siena poll released the same week also gave Pappas the edge, reporting 50% for Pappas and 45% for Sununu.
Both surveys underscore how fluid the race remains in a state known for independent-minded voters. In the Times/Siena results, independent voters — a key bloc in New Hampshire — leaned toward Pappas by about 10 points, a shift that could be consequential in a general election where turnout and undecided voters often determine the outcome.
Broader ballot context in New Hampshire
The Granite State Poll also included other statewide contests. In the 2nd Congressional District contest, incumbent Democrat Maggie Goodlander led Republican Lily Tang Williams 56% to 35%. In the governor’s race, Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte led Democrat Cinde Warmington 47% to 43% in the same survey.
- Senate (Granite State Poll): Pappas 50% — Sununu 42%
- Senate (NYT/Siena): Pappas 50% — Sununu 45%
- 2nd District: Goodlander 56% — Williams 35%
- Governor: Ayotte 47% — Warmington 43%
What the polls show about voter sentiment
Beyond headline numbers, the Times/Siena survey reported that both New Hampshire Senate candidates carried small net-negative favorability ratings, each around minus 1 point. The survey also found broader dissatisfaction with the president among respondents in the states polled, with a majority indicating disapproval of his job performance and of his handling of economic issues.
Methodological details in the Times/Siena release note the New Hampshire sample included 613 voters and carried a margin of error of about 4.9 percentage points. The UNH Survey Center did not provide sample or margin of error details in the summary available alongside these releases, though its Granite State Polls are routinely cited for state-level trend analysis.
Implications for the fall campaign
The Senate contest in New Hampshire is one of several races nationally that could decide which party controls the U.S. Senate next year. A move of this size in state polling — from a small Sununu lead to a multi-point advantage for Pappas in two independent surveys — will likely sharpen both campaigns’ focus on the state in the weeks ahead, from advertising buys to candidate travel and voter outreach.
Campaign strategists typically watch several elements closely as election day approaches: how well each campaign consolidates support within its party, the choices of independent and undecided voters, and turnout patterns among key demographic groups. The current polling suggests Pappas has gained traction with independents, an advantage that could matter in a state where no single party dominates statewide elections.
| Poll | Pappas | Sununu | Sample / MOE |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNH Granite State Poll | 50% | 42% | Not specified in summary |
| New York Times / Siena | 50% | 45% | 613 voters; MOE ~ 4.9 pts |
For New Hampshire voters, the shifting numbers may translate into more campaign appearances, increased advertising and heightened efforts to register and mobilize supporters. Both national parties have identified this seat as strategically significant, and the near-even statewide numbers make each vote in the Granite State proportionally more important than in many other states.
As the campaign moves from primary season into a sustained general election fight, voters and political observers will be watching whether the trends identified in these polls hold, widen or reverse. Additional polling in the coming weeks and changes in the national political environment could further reshape the contest.
This report draws on the Granite State Poll by the UNH Survey Center and New York Times/Siena polling released Sept. 15–22. The race remains competitive, with both campaigns likely to intensify efforts across New Hampshire in the weeks ahead.
