CONCORD, N.H. — A new University of New Hampshire poll shows Democrat Chris Pappas leading Republican John E. Sununu in the contest for the open U.S. Senate seat, marking a reversal of the survey’s finding from late August.
Shift in the race
The UNH Survey Center’s Granite State poll, conducted Sept. 17–21 among 1,418 likely general election voters, reports Pappas at 50% and Sununu at 42%, with a margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points. The result contrasts with a late-August iteration of the same poll in which Sununu held a narrow advantage.
Political strategists and voters in New Hampshire are watching the contest closely. The state’s open seat comes after the retirement of longtime Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, and the outcome could influence control of the Senate as both parties campaign hard in competitive races nationwide.
What the poll shows
Beyond the headline numbers, the survey offers detail on voter sentiment toward the major candidates and the presence of third-party and undecided voters.
- Third-party and write-ins: 2% indicated support for Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante, while another 2% said they would write in someone else.
- Undecided voters: 4% of respondents remained undecided.
- Favorability: Both leading candidates show more unfavorable than favorable views among likely voters.
| Candidate | Support | Favorability |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Pappas | 50% | 33% favorable / 47% unfavorable |
| John E. Sununu | 42% | 34% favorable / 49% unfavorable |
Context and implications
Midterm cycles typically serve as a referendum on the party holding the White House, and history shows the president’s party often loses congressional seats in such elections. Republicans currently hold slim majorities in both the U.S. House and Senate, so shifts in competitive states such as New Hampshire carry national weight.
New Hampshire has not elected a Republican to the Senate in more than a decade and a half, a trend that Republicans will try to reverse this fall. Sununu, who previously represented the Granite State in the Senate from 2003 to 2009, returned to the statewide political spotlight in his challenge for the open seat.
Earlier this year, the Cook Political Report rated the contest a toss-up. The UNH poll’s movement in Pappas’s direction may intensify both parties’ fundraising, advertising and ground-game efforts in the state over the next six weeks.
Other statewide results
The Granite State poll also touched on additional races of local interest. In the 2nd Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Maggie Goodlander holds a lead over Republican Lily Tang Williams. The survey placed the incumbent governor contest competitive as well, with Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Cinde Warmington within striking distance of each other.
Those concurrent contests could influence turnout patterns in November, potentially affecting the Senate race. Voter preferences in down-ballot races often correlate with federal contests, especially in a small state where county-level swings can change statewide results.
Methodology and next steps
The UNH Survey Center’s September poll drew from a sample of likely general election voters and carries a reported margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points. Compared with the August survey, the September results suggest movement among some voters toward Pappas, though close races can shift again as campaigns ramp up their fall messaging.
Campaigns for both Pappas and Sununu were contacted for comment by the poll’s reporting outlets; responses were not included with the poll release.
As New Hampshire heads into the final weeks before ballots are cast, voters and party officials will be watching whether this lead holds, expands or narrows. The state’s small size and historically close elections mean even modest shifts in voter sentiment can have outsized consequences.
— Reported from Concord
