LAS VEGAS — The Nevada governor’s race remains tight, with Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford leading Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo by two percentage points in the latest Emerson College/ KLAS-TV poll of likely voters.
The survey, conducted Sept. 5–8 and based on interviews with 680 likely Nevada voters, gave Ford 44% and Lombardo 42%, while 11% of respondents remained undecided. Ford’s advantage falls inside the poll’s 3.7-point credibility interval, a margin analysts equate with statistical uncertainty in results.
Who the candidates lead with
Emerson’s breakdown shows distinct demographic divides in voter preference. Ford led among Hispanic voters and women, while Lombardo performed better with white voters and men. Because subgroup samples are smaller, Emerson cautioned that those figures carry wider credibility intervals.
| Group | Ford | Lombardo |
|---|---|---|
| Hispanic voters | 51% | 20% |
| Women | 48% | 37% |
| White voters | 38% | 51% |
| Men | 41% | 47% |
Those subgroup trends mirror longstanding partisan patterns in Nevada: Democrats typically perform strongly among Hispanic voters and women, while Republicans often hold traction with white voters and men. Campaigns on both sides are likely to use those signals to target advertising, outreach and turnout operations in the final stretch before Election Day.
Approval ratings and voter priorities
The poll also measured Gov. Lombardo’s job approval and other statewide attitudes. Lombardo’s approval stood at 40%, with 39% disapproving and 21% neutral. In a comparable Emerson survey conducted in November, approval was lower at 34%, with 36% disapproving and 30% neutral or undecided.
Voters identified the economy as their top concern. About 43% ranked jobs, inflation and taxes as the most important issue facing Nevada. Housing affordability was the next concern at 15%, followed by health care at 11% and education at 10%. Those priorities are consistent with earlier Emerson findings that also placed the economy at the top of voters’ lists.
National politics also registered in Nevada. The poll found President Donald Trump’s approval underwater in the state, with 37% approving and 55% disapproving. In Emerson’s November poll, approval was measured at 39% and disapproval at 54%.
Data centers and local opposition
One policy question showing particularly strong sentiment in Nevada involves the placement of data centers. The poll reported nearly 59% of voters oppose data centers being built in or near their communities, with 31% in favor and about 10% neutral. That opposition reflects growing concern over the environmental, noise and utility impacts of large server facilities—a topic that has become a point of debate in the gubernatorial campaign.
- Ford has proposed pausing state tax incentives for new data centers under certain conditions.
- Voter opposition to nearby data centers has grown nationally in recent polls, influencing local conversations about land use and power allocation.
Campaign strategists say issue salience and turnout will determine how the race moves from here. With the margin between the top two candidates smaller than the poll’s credibility interval, both parties face a fluid pathway to victory: Republicans must consolidate support among white voters and men, while Democrats will aim to expand turnout among Hispanic voters and women.
Emerson’s poll offers a snapshot of voter sentiment at a moment when campaign advertising and voter outreach typically intensify. With nearly one in ten voters still undecided, the race remains competitive as Nevada heads toward the next major voting milestones.
