Inside Elections revised its rating for New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race on Wednesday, changing the contest from “tilts Democrat” to a “toss-up” amid rising support for Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu.
What the shift means
The move comes days before New Hampshire voters head to the polls for their Sept. 8 primary elections. On the Republican side, Sununu is expected to prevail over former Ambassador to New Zealand Scott Brown, while the Democratic primary pits Rep. Chris Pappas against Karishma Manzur, a candidate described in recent coverage as a socialist.
Inside Elections’ change reflects recent surveys showing increased support for Sununu in both the GOP primary and general election matchups. A University of New Hampshire poll cited in the shift showed Sununu leading Pappas by about 2 percentage points in a hypothetical general election pairing.
Momentum and national backing
Sununu’s candidacy has attracted national attention: he was among the recruits highlighted by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and has earned backing from Senate Republican organizations. The National Republican Senatorial Committee and allied groups view Sununu as a recruit who can win independent voters in New England — a key consideration in the state’s swing electorate.
“Thanks to Leader John Thune and Senate Republican leadership’s successful recruitment of John E. Sununu, New Hampshire is a prime pick-up opportunity as Republicans work to protect and expand the majority. Senate Leadership Fund is proud to support Sununu and is committed to flipping New Hampshire in November,”
The statement was attributed to Chris Gustafson, communications director for the Senate Leadership Fund, in reaction to Inside Elections’ rating change.
How other forecasters view the race
Not all national handicappers have shifted their assessments. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball continued to classify the New Hampshire contest as “leans Democrat” even after Inside Elections’ update. The differing evaluations underscore how close the race appears and how analysts weigh factors such as candidate quality, fundraising and recent polling.
Local context and candidate history
Sununu previously represented New Hampshire in the U.S. Senate from 2003 to 2009. He lost his seat in the 2008 election to then-Rep. Jeanne Shaheen. Shaheen’s later announcement, in March 2025, that she would not seek another term cleared space for a competitive contest and prompted Sununu to announce a comeback bid in October 2025.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Chris Pappas has been widely seen as the front-runner to advance to the general election, although recent polling indicates the primary between Pappas and Manzur has tightened in some surveys.
Why this matters for New Hampshire voters
A toss-up designation signals that neither party can be confident of victory in November. For New Hampshire, a state that backed then-Vice President Kamala Harris by roughly 2.8 percentage points in 2024, the contest will test whether Republicans can reclaim ground with a familiar statewide figure or whether Democrats can hold the seat in a year that remains nationally competitive.
Quick reference: ratings and polling
| Source | Rating / Poll |
|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Toss-up |
| Cook Political Report | Leans Democrat |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Leans Democrat |
| University of New Hampshire poll | Sununu leads Pappas by ~2 points |
What to watch next
- The Sept. 8 primary outcomes for both parties, which will determine the nominees for the general election.
- Additional statewide and national polling that may confirm or reverse Sununu’s apparent momentum.
- How national party committees allocate resources after the primaries, especially in a race now classified as a toss-up by at least one forecaster.
The change by Inside Elections adds urgency to a race that could shape the Senate balance in November. As New Hampshire voters decide their party nominees next week, both campaigns and national backers will be closely monitoring whether the state’s trajectory remains competitive or tilts definitively toward one party.
