The Arizona State Sun Devils will travel to Provo, Utah, to face the BYU Cougars on Saturday, Oct. 31, with Las Vegas bookmakers putting a clear mark on how they expect the game to go: BYU is a heavy favorite.
Odds, lines and TV
According to BetMGM Sportsbook, BYU opened as a 16.5-point favorite over Arizona State for the Week 9 matchup at LaVell Edwards Stadium. The moneyline shows the Cougars at -750 while the Sun Devils are +550; the over/under, or projected combined points total, is 48.5. The game is scheduled to kick off at noon MST and will be broadcast on FOX.
What the projections say
Local and national outlets have lined up behind BYU in their picks, offering varying score predictions but a consistent theme: the Cougars should win by a sizeable margin.
- The Arizona Republic projects a 30-20 BYU victory, citing the Cougars’ need to rebound after a loss to UCF.
- Bookies.com argues BYU will cover the spread and notes its model pegs BYU as a 20-plus point victor in some scenarios.
- Dimers.com gives a final projection of 33-17 in favor of BYU and places BYU’s win probability at 86.4%.
- ESPN assigns BYU a 90.2% chance to beat Arizona State.
“We would have liked ASU's chances of pulling off an upset a little more if BYU hadn't lost to UCF. The Cougars can't afford another loss, and they won't get one here as Bear Bachmeier and BYU get back on track in Provo, Utah.”
— Jeremy Cluff, The Arizona Republic
Context behind the numbers
Several models and writers point to the Cougars’ overall statistical edge this season. Bookies.com referenced aggregate scoring margins, noting that excluding FCS opponents BYU carries an average margin of +7.7 points per game while Arizona State sits at about -9.3. On a neutral field the differential would be roughly 17 points; with BYU at home, those same analysts see an effective gap closer to 20 points.
Those figures help explain why sportsbooks show such a lopsided line and why predictive sites give BYU an overwhelming probability of victory. The Cougars also enter the game looking to rebound from a recent loss to UCF after a notable, tight win over Notre Dame earlier in the season — results that have produced volatile public perception and sharp betting movement.
What this means for Arizona State
For Arizona State, the matchup represents a difficult road test against a favored conference opponent in an environment that models view as a significant advantage for BYU. Upsets happen in college football, but the consensus across multiple forecasting systems and sportsbooks is that the Sun Devils will need to overcome both a talent gap and hostile surroundings to change the expected outcome.
From a betting perspective, the large spread and the steep moneyline make Arizona State a long shot for bettors seeking pure upside; BYU backers face limited returns on the moneyline but a comfortable margin on the spread is what many oddsmakers and analysts anticipate.
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Point spread (BetMGM) | BYU -16.5 |
| Moneyline | BYU -750 / ASU +550 |
| Over/Under | 48.5 points |
| Notable projections | AZ Republic: BYU 30-20 • Dimers.com: BYU 33-17 |
How to follow the game
Arizona State fans who can’t make the trip to Provo can watch the game on FOX or stream it with services such as Fubo. Bettors should monitor lines in the hours leading up to kickoff; with the spread sizeable, movement is possible based on late injury news or betting volume.
Saturday’s contest will offer a clear gauge of where both programs stand within the Big 12 this fall. For BYU, a convincing home win would steady the team after a rare setback; for Arizona State, any positive result — let alone an upset — would alter the narrative around a challenging stretch of their schedule.
Coverage of the game and postgame reaction will appear on WE NEWS sports following kickoff and as official results and statistics become available.
