New Delhi: Medanta (Global Health Ltd), a leading tertiary care hospital chain with a strong presence in North and East India, is poised for significant capacity and earnings expansion, an equity research note from Prabhudas Liladhar Capital Ltd said on Thursday. The company currently operates six hospitals — in Gurugram, Indore, Ranchi, Lucknow, Patna and Noida — with a consolidated bed capacity of about 3,737 beds and intends to add roughly 3,368 beds over the next three to four years.
Operational ramp-up and earnings trajectory
The research house observed that Medanta reported a moderate consolidated EBITDA growth of 7% CAGR over FY24–26, noting that the pace was affected by operational difficulties at the Lucknow unit and start‑up losses from the Noida hospital in FY26. With Lucknow’s issues largely resolved and Noida entering a visible ramp‑up phase, analysts expect a sharper improvement in operating profitability. Prabhudas Liladhar projects EBITDA to grow at about 24% CAGR over FY26–29E.
At the current market price, the stock is valued at roughly 24x EV/EBITDA on FY28E and 21x on FY29E. The broker maintained a ‘BUY’ recommendation with a target price of ₹1,750 per share, which reflects a valuation of 28x EV/EBITDA on September FY28E.
Noida identified as next growth engine
The note highlights the Noida hospital as the next medium‑term growth engine. Commercialised in September 2025 with an initial 300 beds in Phase 1, the unit had expanded to 433 operational beds by Q1FY27 and has the capacity to reach about 550 beds as occupancy improves. The broker expects the Noida facility to achieve EBITDA breakeven in Q2FY27, with estimated EBITDA of ₹865 million in FY28E and ₹1.4 billion in FY29E.
Analysts said the Noida hospital is well positioned to tap the large and relatively underpenetrated National Capital Region (NCR) market. Much of the near‑term growth is expected to be driven by higher patient volumes and an improved payer mix rather than large incremental capital expenditure, aided by completion of key insurance and public sector undertakings (PSU) empanelments.
Greenfield expansion track record and regional performance
Prabhudas Liladhar noted that Medanta has demonstrated the ability to ramp up new greenfield hospitals rapidly. The Lucknow and Patna units reached breakeven within their first full year of operations — Lucknow in FY21 and Patna in FY23 — and together delivered a 27% EBITDA CAGR over FY23–26. For the period FY26–29E, the broker expects combined EBITDA growth of about 18% from the Lucknow and Patna units.
| Metric | Detail |
|---|---|
| Current hospitals | 6 (Gurugram, Indore, Ranchi, Lucknow, Patna, Noida) |
| Current total beds | ~3,737 |
| Planned additional beds | ~3,368 over 3–4 years |
| Noida operational beds (Q1FY27) | 433 (scope to reach 550) |
| Noida EBITDA estimates | ₹865 million (FY28E); ₹1.4 billion (FY29E) |
- Near‑term risks: Previous start‑up losses and operational disruptions (Lucknow, Noida) partially constrained FY24–26 EBITDA growth.
- Medium‑term drivers: Noida ramp‑up, sustained performance at Lucknow and Patna, and limited incremental capex for volume‑led growth.
- Valuation stance: Broker retains Buy with TP ₹1,750, based on 28x EV/EBITDA on Sep'FY28E assumptions.
The expansion plans, if realised, would add substantial tertiary care capacity across several states and increase Medanta’s role in delivering specialised services. Observers say rapid scaling of bed capacity in the private sector can improve access to advanced care but also raises questions about regional distribution, affordability and insurance coverage.
For readers seeking medical care, it is important to consult a qualified doctor or hospital directly about treatment options and empanelment status. This report summarises an equity research assessment of operational and financial prospects and does not constitute medical advice.
