The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said a low-pressure area is likely to develop over the northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbouring regions around 12 August, raising the prospect of heavy to very heavy rainfall over Odisha between Wednesday and Friday.
Key regional forecasts and timing
The IMD's weekly outlook indicates intensified rainfall activity across several parts of the country through mid-August. Important highlights from the forecast include:
- Odisha: Heavy to very heavy rain expected between 12 and 14 August.
- Western Himalayan region: Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely during the week.
- Northwest India: Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Uttarakhand can expect fairly widespread to widespread rainfall during 11-16 August.
- Plains of north-west India: Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab are forecast widespread rain on 11 and 13 August.
- East Rajasthan: Widespread rain is probable during 11-12 August.
- Central India: West Madhya Pradesh likely to see widespread rainfall on 11-12 August; East Madhya Pradesh may receive rain through 16 August. Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh are also expected to see increased activity.
- East India: Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim are likely to receive widespread rainfall through 16 August. Jharkhand and Bihar should see increasing rainfall from 12 and 13 August respectively.
- West and coastal India: Konkan and Goa are expected to have widespread rain throughout the period; Gujarat should see similar conditions through 13 August.
Flood and flash-flood concerns
Alongside heavy rainfall, the IMD has warned of a low-to-moderate flash-flood risk across parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the next 24 hours. In East Rajasthan, the risk is particularly highlighted for the districts of Baran, Bundi, Jhalawar and Kota. The weather agency said other interior districts of Madhya Pradesh and hill areas of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand may also be vulnerable to rapid surface runoff and localised flash flooding.
Monsoon rainfall context
The IMD said that rainfall over the country during the coming two months (August–September) is likely to be below normal, with an expectation of less than 94% of the long-period average (LPA) for that period. The two-month LPA for August–September, calculated from the 1971–2020 climatological record, is 422.8 mm.
| Period | Actual/Forecast (mm) | Reference/LPA (mm) |
|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (observed) | 283.3 mm | 280.5 mm (LPA) |
| Aug–Sep 2026 (outlook) | < 94% of LPA | 422.8 mm (LPA) |
The IMD noted that July rainfall was marginally above normal — about 1% above the long-period average — a recovery after a sharp deficit of 35% in June. Cumulatively for June–July, the country remained in deficit, by about 12.6%, according to the agency's data.
Precautionary advice
Given the expected low-pressure development and enhanced rains, the IMD urged state administrations, district authorities and disaster management agencies to be alert to localised flooding, landslides in hilly terrain and waterlogging in urban areas. Practical precautions for residents and authorities include:
- Ensure readiness of drainage and urban flood management systems and clear blockages.
- Keep vulnerable populations — particularly those in low-lying and riverine areas — informed and prepared for possible evacuation.
- Avoid unnecessary travel during periods of heavy downpour; do not attempt to cross flooded roads or streams.
- Monitor updates from the IMD and local disaster management authorities for warnings and advisories.
The IMD will continue to monitor the low-pressure area's evolution and issue updated warnings as the system develops and its track and intensity become clearer.
