The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday dismissed speculation that the current Bay of Bengal system will develop into a cyclonic storm, but warned it is likely to strengthen into a depression and then a deep depression before making landfall near the north Andhra Pradesh–south Odisha coast around September 23.
Where and when heavy rain is expected
The IMD said the system — a well-marked low-pressure area that lay over the west-central and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal — is expected to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression by Tuesday, becoming a deep depression on Wednesday.
Forecasts issued by the department indicate heavy to very heavy rainfall across parts of Andhra Pradesh between September 22 and 25, with very high localised totals on September 23 and 24 in coastal districts.
Districts under alert
The Met office has issued graded alerts for coastal and adjoining districts:
- Red alert (extremely heavy rainfall): Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari, Eluru and Krishna — for Sept 23–24.
- Orange alert (heavy to very heavy rainfall): nine districts (IMD list) on Sept 23.
- Yellow alert (heavy rainfall): several other districts from Sept 22.
“Parts of Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari, Eluru and Krishna districts are likely to receive extremely heavy rainfall on Sept 23 and 24,” said S. Karunasagar, scientist at IMD-Amaravati.
Wind and sea conditions
The IMD also warned of squally winds along the north Andhra coast and Yanam, estimating speeds of 50–60 kmph with gusts up to 70 kmph. Winds of 40–50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, are expected along other coastal stretches.
Areas likely to be most affected
Alongside the districts under red alert, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected on Sept 23 in Srikakulam, Parvathipuram Manyam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, Anakapalle, Alluri Sitharama Raju and NTR districts. Parts of Palnadu, Guntur, Bapatla, Prakasam and Nellore are also likely to receive heavy rain on Sept 23 and 24, the IMD said.
Forecast timeline (IMD)
| Date | Expected development |
|---|---|
| Sept 22 | Low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal; heavy rainfall begins in some districts |
| Sept 23 | Likely depression/deep depression; system near north Andhra–south Odisha coast; peak heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in many coastal districts |
| Sept 24–25 | Rainfall continues, with localised heavy falls and gradually easing thereafter |
Practical implications for residents and authorities
While the IMD does not expect the system to reach cyclonic-storm strength because it remains linked with the southwest monsoon current, the expected deep depression and associated squalls pose risks of flooding, waterlogging and wind damage along the coast and low-lying areas.
Residents in the alerted districts should prepare for:
- Possible waterlogging and disruption in low-lying urban and rural areas;
- Strong gusty winds affecting unsecured structures, trees and power lines;
- Disruption to marine activity — fishermen and small boats should avoid venturing into the sea when squall warnings are in force;
- Reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions during heavy spells.
What local administrations are likely to do
Given the graded alerts and the forecast of extremely heavy localised rainfall, district administrations in coastal Andhra are expected to monitor rivers, reservoirs and drainage systems closely, and to issue local advisories on evacuations or relief measures if required. Authorities typically put disaster response teams on standby for rescue, relief and power restoration operations in such situations.
IMD clarification amid social media speculation
The IMD specifically rejected social media suggestions that the system could intensify into a cyclonic storm. Officials emphasised that, although the system will strengthen into a deep depression, current model guidance does not support classification as a cyclonic storm.
For continuing updates, the IMD issues regular advisories and warnings. Mariners, local civic bodies and residents in the affected districts should follow official directions and avoid relying on unverified social media reports.
